Arkansas Razorbacks

Men's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Virginia · Sun 8 Nov, 1 PM ET

Arkansas52%48%Virginia

Projected 78-78 · Game page

Makes the tournament64%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 6.0

Wins the national title1%Final Four 4% · projected 22-12

Net rating+20.8Rank 26 of 365 · offence 23, defence 31

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-12 (16 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 3%
Wins the conference tournament: 4%
Average seed if in the field: 6.0
A 1 seed: 1%

Makes the field64%
Round of 3248%
Sweet 1623%
Elite Eight10%
Final Four4%
Title game2%
Champion1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Arkansas-Pine Bluffrank 357	Home	100%	97-60	W 106-61	Right
Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET	vs Virginiarank 28	Neutral	52%	78-78	—
Wed 11 Nov8 PM ET	vs Robert Morrisrank 203	Home	99%	90-64	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 64% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs VirginiaA win: 69% · a loss: 59%+9 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs Robert MorrisA win: 64% · a loss: 65%−1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jordan Smith Jr.G	1	28.0	20.0	4.0	2.0	+2.4	+2.3
Maper MakerF	1	23.0	6.0	8.0	1.0	+2.5	+1.9
Jeremiah WilkinsonG · transfer from Georgia	1	21.0	23.0	6.0	3.0	+9.0	+4.3
Billy Richmond IIIG	1	20.0	8.0	2.0	2.0	+8.2	+3.8
JJ AndrewsF	1	20.0	4.0	3.0	2.0	+2.6	+1.7
Abdou ToureF	1	20.0	12.0	3.0	2.0	+2.6	+1.7
Davion ThompsonG	1	19.0	7.0	1.0	4.0	+2.6	+1.6
Miikka MuurinenF	1	18.0	10.0	4.0	2.0	+2.6	+1.6
Cooper BowserF · transfer from Furman	1	16.0	8.0	7.0	1.0	+6.6	+2.5
Caleb OurigouF	1	9.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	+2.8	+0.8
Ilia FrolovF	1	4.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	+3.0	+0.4
Amere BrownG	1	1.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+5.0	+0.1
Ayden KelleyG	1	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+5.4	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.1%rank 86	50.2%rank 140	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.2%rank 110	20.2%rank 11	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	33.9%rank 27	31.4%rank 125	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	28.4%rank 14	25.5%rank 252	25.1%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +2.4 points a game (they shot 28.6%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +18.7
Last season's net rating: +25.6
Last season's minutes returning: 16%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +2.3
Change since preseason: +2.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 116.8 (rank 23)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 96.0 (rank 31)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.7 (rank 8)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −22.2 (rank 283)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Florida	1-0	0-0	+32.8	121.3	88.5	2
2	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+27.7	119.2	91.5	7
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+24.8	115.8	91.0	11
4	Alabama	1-0	0-0	+24.3	118.4	94.0	14
5	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+21.7	117.8	96.1	19
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+20.9	116.7	95.8	23
7	Texas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	118.6	97.8	25
8	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	116.8	96.0	26
9	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+20.1	118.1	98.0	30
10	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+19.6	114.6	94.9	32
11	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+16.9	112.3	95.5	37
12	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	113.1	96.3	39
13	Oklahoma	0-1	0-0	+15.2	114.0	98.7	49
14	LSU	1-0	0-0	+13.1	111.3	98.2	59
15	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+9.5	110.2	100.8	82
16	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+7.0	111.7	104.7	92