Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions

Men's · Southwestern Athletic Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at Baylor · Fri 6 Nov, 5 PM ET

AR-Pine Bluff0%100%Baylor

Projected 60-95 · Game page

Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.6

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 10-22

Net rating−22.2Rank 357 of 365 · offence 345, defence 359

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 10-22 (6 to 15 wins)
Projected conference record: 7-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 2%
Wins the conference tournament: 3%
Average seed if in the field: 15.6
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field3%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	at Arkansasrank 26	Away	0%	60-97	L 61-106	Right
Fri 6 Nov5 PM ET	at Baylorrank 42	Away	0%	60-95	—
Wed 11 Nov12 AM ET	at UCLArank 21	Away	0%	57-95	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 2% · the next 7 days

No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jalen TatumG · transfer from Jackson St	1	34.0	16.0	6.0	2.0	−5.8	−2.3
Harrison PickettG	1	27.0	10.0	2.0	2.0	−6.2	−2.0
CJ SmithF · transfer from UTEP	1	26.0	9.0	3.0	2.0	−4.8	−1.3
Kalli JohnsonG	1	26.0	1.0	1.0	2.0	−3.1	−0.5
Creed WilliamsonF	1	21.0	13.0	3.0	2.0	−3.0	−0.3
Jai'chaunn HayesG	1	18.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−5.9	−1.2
Jeremy NyakundiF	1	15.0	10.0	3.0	0.0	−2.8	−0.2
Braylon JohnsonG	1	10.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−2.7	−0.1
David GiddensG · transfer from Cleveland St	1	8.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	−5.2	−0.5
Jahmari Hamilton-BrownG	1	8.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−2.6	−0.1
Cedric DixonG	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−2.5	0.0
Dominic CapriottiG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−2.5	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.3%rank 223	51.1%rank 279	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	20.3%rank 354	18.2%rank 256	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.3%rank 243	33.9%rank 343	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.5%rank 110	28.4%rank 352	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −0.5 points a game (they shot 33.3%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −20.1
Last season's net rating: −15.4
Last season's minutes returning: 3%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.0
Change since preseason: −2.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 94.1 (rank 345)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 116.3 (rank 359)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.4 (rank 62)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +20.8 (rank 24)

Southwestern Athletic Conference by rating

12 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Southern	0-1	0-0	−12.9	96.5	109.4	291
2	Texas Southern	0-1	0-0	−14.5	98.5	113.0	309
3	Alabama State	0-1	0-0	−15.8	94.9	110.6	324
4	Jackson State	0-1	0-0	−15.9	93.8	109.7	327
5	Bethune-Cookman	0-1	0-0	−16.0	96.0	112.1	329
6	Grambling	1-0	0-0	−17.6	97.6	115.1	334
7	Alabama A&M	1-0	0-0	−18.4	95.2	113.6	339
8	Prairie View A&M	1-0	0-0	−19.7	94.5	114.2	345
9	Florida A&M	0-1	0-0	−22.0	94.5	116.5	355
10	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	0-1	0-0	−22.2	94.1	116.3	357
11	Alcorn State	0-1	0-0	−22.5	92.2	114.7	359
12	Mississippi Valley State	0-0	0-0	−29.1	89.0	118.1	365