UCLA Bruins

Men's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs North Florida · Fri 6 Nov, 10:30 PM ET

North Florida1%99%UCLA

Projected 92-62 · Game page

Makes the tournament81%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 5.3

Wins the national title1%Final Four 5% · projected 23-10

Net rating+21.4Rank 21 of 365 · offence 21, defence 26

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 23-10 (18 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 6%
Wins the conference tournament: 5%
Average seed if in the field: 5.3
A 1 seed: 2%

Makes the field81%
Round of 3263%
Sweet 1631%
Elite Eight13%
Final Four5%
Title game2%
Champion1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Arizonarank 16	Neutral	38%	67-71	W 84-75	Wrong
Fri 6 Nov10:30 PM ET	vs North Floridarank 275	Home	99%	92-62	—
Wed 11 Nov12 AM ET	vs Arkansas-Pine Bluffrank 357	Home	100%	95-57	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 81% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs North FloridaA win: 81% · a loss: 84%−3 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Nikola KusturicaF	1	39.0	9.0	5.0	2.0	+0.8	+2.0
Jaylen PettyG · transfer from Texas Tech	1	38.0	13.0	7.0	7.0	+5.0	+4.7
Eric Dailey Jr.F	1	34.0	13.0	8.0	2.0	+6.2	+4.9
Trent PerryG	1	25.0	21.0	3.0	5.0	+6.6	+3.8
Azavier RobinsonG · transfer from Butler	1	16.0	4.0	2.0	0.0	+3.9	+1.7
Xavier BookerC	1	13.0	8.0	3.0	0.0	+6.7	+2.0
Sergej MacuraF · transfer from Mississippi St	1	13.0	7.0	2.0	0.0	+4.0	+1.4
Joe Philon IIIF	1	12.0	7.0	4.0	0.0	+1.5	+0.8
Brandon WilliamsF	1	11.0	2.0	3.0	0.0	+4.4	+1.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.4%rank 293	49.1%rank 53	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.0%rank 11	17.9%rank 300	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.0%rank 107	31.3%rank 119	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.7%rank 98	27.7%rank 339	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.4 expected (+0.6)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +8.1 points a game (they shot 23.3%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −3.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +19.7
Last season's net rating: +20.6
Last season's minutes returning: 48%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +6.6
Change since preseason: +1.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 117.1 (rank 21)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 95.7 (rank 26)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.4 (rank 295)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +22.8 (rank 15)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+29.6	123.2	93.5	5
2	Michigan	1-0	0-0	+28.1	120.5	92.4	6
3	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+27.6	119.4	91.7	8
4	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.7	117.8	94.0	15
5	Purdue	0-1	0-0	+21.9	119.2	97.3	17
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+21.6	117.5	96.0	20
7	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+21.4	117.1	95.7	21
8	Ohio State	0-1	0-0	+17.8	118.7	100.8	34
9	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+16.6	113.9	97.3	40
10	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+16.6	114.7	98.1	41
11	Maryland	1-0	0-0	+15.8	114.4	98.7	43
12	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+15.3	113.2	97.8	47
13	USC	1-0	0-0	+15.3	112.6	97.2	48
14	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+12.8	113.0	100.3	61
15	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+12.0	110.3	98.3	65
16	Penn State	1-0	0-0	+11.1	112.4	101.3	68
17	Rutgers	0-0	0-0	+10.2	110.9	100.7	75
18	Washington	1-0	0-0	+9.6	111.3	101.7	81