Indiana Hoosiers

Men's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Bellarmine · Thu 5 Nov, 6 PM ET

Bellarmine1%99%Indiana

Projected 90-61 · Game page

Makes the tournament52%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 6.5

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 19-14

Net rating+16.6Rank 40 of 365 · offence 44, defence 41

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-14 (14 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-11
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 6.5
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field52%
Round of 3233%
Sweet 1612%
Elite Eight4%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Eastern Illinoisrank 328	Home	98%	79-52	W 91-57	Right
Thu 5 Nov6 PM ET	vs Bellarminerank 317	Home	99%	90-61	Live
Mon 9 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs Syracuserank 67	Neutral	64%	77-73	—
Thu 12 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs Tennessee Techrank 280	Home	99%	90-63	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 52% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs BellarmineA win: 52% · a loss: 52%0 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs SyracuseA win: 54% · a loss: 47%+7 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs Tennessee TechA win: 52% · a loss: 50%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Aiden SherrellF · transfer from Alabama	1	25.0	9.0	6.0	1.0	+7.4	+4.2
Jaeden MustafG · transfer from Georgia Tech	1	24.0	8.0	3.0	2.0	+0.8	+1.2
Markus BurtonG · transfer from Notre Dame	1	24.0	19.0	2.0	5.0	+3.8	+2.5
Bryce LindsayG · transfer from Villanova	1	24.0	14.0	1.0	1.0	+3.1	+2.2
Darren HarrisG · transfer from Duke	1	23.0	7.0	4.0	1.0	+4.4	+2.6
Samet YigitogluC · transfer from SMU	1	18.0	8.0	7.0	1.0	+4.2	+2.0
Trent SisleyF	1	16.0	7.0	1.0	0.0	+2.6	+1.3
Sam AlexisF	1	15.0	6.0	1.0	2.0	+5.9	+2.1
Trevor ManhertzF	1	15.0	11.0	2.0	0.0	−0.6	+0.4
Vaughn KarvalaF	1	6.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.4	+0.2
Drew SnivelyG	1	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+2.0	+0.3
Clemens SokolovC	1	4.0	2.0	3.0	0.0	−0.3	+0.1
Justin MondenG · transfer from MD Eastern	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−3.3	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.8%rank 112	51.5%rank 301	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 145	20.2%rank 14	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.2%rank 102	30.5%rank 61	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	27.3%rank 40	23.2%rank 38	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +4.6 points a game (they shot 21.4%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +15.6
Last season's net rating: +19.1
Last season's minutes returning: 17%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +8.9
Change since preseason: +1.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 113.9 (rank 44)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 97.3 (rank 41)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.8 (rank 252)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −15.9 (rank 259)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+29.6	123.2	93.5	5
2	Michigan	1-0	0-0	+28.1	120.5	92.4	6
3	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+27.6	119.4	91.7	8
4	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.7	117.8	94.0	15
5	Purdue	0-1	0-0	+21.9	119.2	97.3	17
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+21.6	117.5	96.0	20
7	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+21.4	117.1	95.7	21
8	Ohio State	0-1	0-0	+17.8	118.7	100.8	34
9	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+16.6	113.9	97.3	40
10	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+16.6	114.7	98.1	41
11	Maryland	1-0	0-0	+15.8	114.4	98.7	43
12	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+15.3	113.2	97.8	47
13	USC	1-0	0-0	+15.3	112.6	97.2	48
14	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+12.8	113.0	100.3	61
15	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+12.0	110.3	98.3	65
16	Penn State	1-0	0-0	+11.1	112.4	101.3	68
17	Rutgers	0-0	0-0	+10.2	110.9	100.7	75
18	Washington	1-0	0-0	+9.6	111.3	101.7	81