Minnesota Golden Gophers

Men's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs St Thomas · Fri 6 Nov, 8 PM ET

St Thomas11%89%Minnesota

Projected 81-67 · Game page

Makes the tournament17%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.2

Wins the national title<1%Final Four <1% · projected 16-16

Net rating+11.9Rank 65 of 365 · offence 79, defence 49

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-16 (12 to 21 wins)
Projected conference record: 7-13
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.2
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field17%
Round of 328%
Sweet 162%
Elite Eight1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs North Dakotarank 289	Home	95%	77-56	W 85-50	Right
Fri 6 Nov8 PM ET	vs St. Thomasrank 145	Home	89%	81-67	—
Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET	at Cincinnatirank 12	Away	12%	63-77	—
Thu 12 Nov8 PM ET	vs Southernrank 291	Home	98%	84-60	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 17% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs St. ThomasA win: 17% · a loss: 15%+2 pts
Mon 9 Nov: at CincinnatiA win: 26% · a loss: 16%+10 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs SouthernA win: 17% · a loss: 16%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Isaac AsumaG	1	30.0	13.0	6.0	6.0	+2.2	+2.2
Kyan EvansG · transfer from North Carolina	1	28.0	4.0	6.0	4.0	+1.6	+1.8
Bobby DurkinF	1	26.0	16.0	5.0	3.0	+2.4	+2.0
Jaylen Crocker-JohnsonF	1	25.0	15.0	4.0	1.0	+3.3	+2.3
Kai ShinholsterG	1	20.0	7.0	4.0	6.0	+0.6	+0.9
Grayson GroveF	1	19.0	11.0	1.0	6.0	+2.5	+1.5
Nolan GrovesG · transfer from Texas Tech	1	17.0	6.0	4.0	0.0	+2.8	+1.4
Malick KordelC · transfer from Michigan	1	16.0	13.0	5.0	1.0	+5.1	+2.0
Malachi PalmerG · transfer from Villanova	1	12.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	+2.6	+1.0
Nolen AndersonF	1	5.0	0.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	+0.2
Cedric TomesG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.1	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.7%rank 54	48.1%rank 16	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.1%rank 83	18.2%rank 263	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.5%rank 310	31.4%rank 125	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	22.2%rank 351	25.2%rank 232	25.1%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +18.1 points a game (they shot 10.7%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +11.1
Last season's net rating: +10.2
Last season's minutes returning: 60%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +4.2
Change since preseason: +0.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 110.3 (rank 79)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 98.4 (rank 49)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 68.9 (rank 362)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −12.7 (rank 227)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+29.6	123.2	93.6	5
2	Michigan	1-0	0-0	+28.0	120.5	92.5	6
3	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+27.6	119.4	91.8	8
4	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.7	117.8	94.1	15
5	Purdue	0-1	0-0	+21.9	119.2	97.3	17
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+21.5	117.5	96.0	20
7	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+21.4	117.2	95.8	21
8	Ohio State	0-1	0-0	+17.8	118.7	100.9	34
9	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+16.6	114.7	98.1	40
10	Indiana	2-0	0-0	+16.1	115.2	99.2	42
11	Maryland	1-0	0-0	+15.7	114.4	98.7	43
12	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+15.3	113.2	97.9	47
13	USC	1-0	0-0	+15.3	112.6	97.3	48
14	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+12.7	113.1	100.3	61
15	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+11.9	110.3	98.4	65
16	Penn State	1-0	0-0	+11.0	112.4	101.4	68
17	Rutgers	0-0	0-0	+10.2	110.9	100.7	75
18	Washington	1-0	0-0	+9.6	111.3	101.8	81