St. Thomas Tommies
Makes the tournament33%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 23-11
Net rating−1.9Rank 146 of 365 · offence 108, defence 226
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 23-11 (18 to 29 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-4
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 47%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 33%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field33%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Presbyterianrank 203 | Away | 47% | 68-69 | W 87-78 | Wrong |
| Fri 6 Nov8 PM ET | at Minnesotarank 65 | Away | 11% | 67-81 | — | |
| Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET | vs Green Bayrank 211 | Home | 74% | 80-72 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov8 PM ET | vs Macalesternot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at MinnesotaA win: 36% · a loss: 33%+3 pts
- Sun 8 Nov: vs Green BayA win: 33% · a loss: 33%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy LorenzF · transfer from DePaul | 1 | 30.0 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −0.4 | +0.9 |
| Austin HerroG | 1 | 28.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.4 | +1.7 |
| Hayden TibbitsG | 1 | 27.0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | −0.5 | +0.8 |
| Carter BjerkeF | 1 | 26.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +0.1 | +1.0 |
| Tim FranksG | 1 | 26.0 | 24.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −0.5 | +0.7 |
| Jonovan WilkinsonG | 1 | 23.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | −1.2 | +0.4 |
| Caden WilkinsF · transfer from Green Bay | 1 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Julius WadeG | 1 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.3 |
| Kyle CountsF | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.1 |
| Brogan MadsonG | 1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 53.6%rank 4 | 49.6%rank 81 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 17.7%rank 39 | 18.3%rank 242 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.3%rank 317 | 31.1%rank 102 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 27.5%rank 33 | 25.1%rank 148 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.5 expected (+0.5)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +6.2 points a game (they shot 25.0%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.2 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −2.0
- Last season's net rating
- +5.7
- Last season's minutes returning
- 28%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.5
- Change since preseason
- +0.1
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 106.6 (rank 108)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 108.5 (rank 226)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.8 (rank 125)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −6.3 (rank 168)
Summit League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Thomas | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.9 | 106.6 | 108.5 | 146 |
| 2 | South Dakota State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.3 | 102.7 | 106.0 | 163 |
| 3 | North Dakota State | 1-1 | 0-0 | −5.8 | 104.2 | 110.0 | 194 |
| 4 | Omaha | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.6 | 100.3 | 109.9 | 254 |
| 5 | South Dakota | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.6 | 101.6 | 114.2 | 288 |
| 6 | North Dakota | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.7 | 98.8 | 111.5 | 289 |
| 7 | Kansas City | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.0 | 95.0 | 108.9 | 303 |
| 8 | Oral Roberts | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.7 | 97.6 | 112.2 | 310 |