Green Bay Phoenix

Men's · Horizon League · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Cincinnati · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

Green Bay1%99%Cincinnati

Projected 58-87 · Game page

Makes the tournament8%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.4

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-17

Net rating−6.6Rank 211 of 365 · offence 172, defence 268

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 17-17 (11 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-9
Wins or shares the conference title: 9%
Wins the conference tournament: 8%
Average seed if in the field: 14.4
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field8%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Lawrencenot Division I	Home	—	—	W 94-51
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	at Cincinnatirank 12	Away	1%	58-87	Live
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	at St. Thomasrank 145	Away	26%	72-80	—
Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET	at Northern Iowarank 111	Away	17%	65-77	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 8% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at CincinnatiA win: 9% · a loss: 8%+1 pts
Sun 8 Nov: at St. ThomasA win: 9% · a loss: 8%+1 pts
Tue 10 Nov: at Northern IowaA win: 7% · a loss: 9%−2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Stewart Erhart IIG	1	18.0	9.0	3.0	5.0	−1.5	+0.2
Orlando LovejoyG · transfer from Detroit Mercy	1	16.0	6.0	1.0	3.0	+1.3	+0.9
Marcus HallF	1	16.0	12.0	2.0	1.0	+0.1	+0.6
Clarence PayiaG	1	16.0	9.0	3.0	1.0	−1.5	+0.1
Isaiah SutherlandF · transfer from ETSU	1	15.0	6.0	4.0	1.0	−1.6	+0.1
Ne'quan BrownG	1	15.0	14.0	3.0	0.0	−1.5	+0.2
LeBron ThomasG	1	14.0	7.0	3.0	1.0	−1.5	+0.1
Keegan Van KauwenbergG	1	13.0	9.0	3.0	0.0	−2.4	−0.1
Henry GruetzmacherF	1	13.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	−1.4	+0.1
Mac WreckeG	1	11.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	−2.4	−0.1
Maruan CicicC	1	11.0	0.0	5.0	2.0	−3.3	−0.2
Ahmere CarsonG	1	11.0	4.0	1.0	1.0	−1.4	+0.1
Tadej ColnaricF	1	9.0	5.0	3.0	1.0	−1.3	+0.1
Christian BurnettG	1	8.0	6.0	0.0	2.0	−1.3	+0.1
Aidan HadawayF · transfer from Ohio	1	7.0	4.0	2.0	0.0	+0.8	+0.3
Brady FitzgeraldG	1	7.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−2.9	−0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 156	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 155	18.5%rank 133	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.8%rank 128	31.8%rank 162	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.1%rank 133	25.1%rank 154	25.1%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −6.6
Last season's net rating: −4.4
Last season's minutes returning: 32%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.5
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 103.3 (rank 172)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 109.9 (rank 268)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 69.6 (rank 348)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Horizon League by rating

12 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Wright State	1-0	0-0	+0.4	108.1	107.7	124
2	Oakland	0-1	0-0	−3.0	105.2	108.2	157
3	Northern Kentucky	2-0	0-0	−4.3	106.3	110.6	176
4	Youngstown State	1-0	0-0	−6.2	100.6	106.8	200
5	Robert Morris	0-1	0-0	−6.3	101.8	108.1	203
6	Green Bay	1-0	0-0	−6.6	103.3	109.9	211
7	Milwaukee	0-2	0-0	−7.1	100.7	107.9	218
8	Purdue Fort Wayne	0-1	0-0	−7.8	100.5	108.3	230
9	Detroit Mercy	0-0	0-0	−8.0	101.0	109.0	233
10	IU Indianapolis	1-0	0-0	−13.5	99.5	113.0	297
11	Cleveland State	0-1	0-0	−17.2	97.9	115.1	332
12	Northern Illinois	0-1	0-0	−20.2	97.0	117.2	351