Northern Iowa Panthers

Men's · Missouri Valley Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Furman · Sat 7 Nov, 5 PM ET

Northern Iowa55%45%Furman

Projected 72-70 · Game page

Makes the tournament16%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 20-14

Net rating+3.8Rank 110 of 365 · offence 123, defence 100

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 20-14 (14 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 17%
Wins the conference tournament: 13%
Average seed if in the field: 11.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field16%
Round of 322%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Tue 3 Nov	vs Cornell (IA)not Division I	Home	—	—	W 106-70
Sat 7 Nov5 PM ET	at Furmanrank 168	Away	55%	72-70	—
Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET	vs Green Bayrank 211	Home	83%	77-65	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 16% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: at FurmanA win: 16% · a loss: 15%+1 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs Green BayA win: 16% · a loss: 15%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Greyson UelmenG · transfer from North Dakota	1	24.0	17.0	7.0	4.0	+1.7	+1.6
Tate McCubbinG · transfer from Austin Peay	1	22.0	10.0	6.0	1.0	+0.5	+1.0
Carson VisG · transfer from W Michigan	1	21.0	18.0	4.0	1.0	+0.3	+0.8
Levi ValdoG	1	17.0	6.0	2.0	2.0	−0.1	+0.6
Isaiah Johnson-AriguF · transfer from St Thomas	1	15.0	12.0	2.0	1.0	+2.9	+1.3
Redek BornG	1	15.0	5.0	4.0	2.0	−0.1	+0.5
Jules IsebaertF	1	15.0	1.0	1.0	3.0	−0.1	+0.5
Geon HutchinsG	1	14.0	11.0	4.0	0.0	+0.8	+0.7
Jalen WilsonF	1	13.0	6.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	+0.5
Will GerdesF	1	13.0	9.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+0.5
Kyle PockF	1	11.0	1.0	2.0	0.0	+1.8	+0.7
Ian SmikleF · transfer from Tulsa	1	10.0	5.0	3.0	0.0	+2.2	+0.7
Cade CourbatG	1	5.0	0.0	2.0	1.0	+0.2	+0.2
Jaydon KimbroughG	1	5.0	5.0	1.0	0.0	+0.2	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 153	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.6%rank 155	18.6%rank 133	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 127	31.7%rank 162	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.2%rank 133	25.2%rank 152	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +3.8
Last season's net rating: +11.5
Last season's minutes returning: 10%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.6
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 105.9 (rank 123)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 102.1 (rank 100)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 69.2 (rank 361)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Missouri Valley Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Murray State	1-0	0-0	+6.3	107.4	101.0	98
2	UIC	1-0	0-0	+5.2	107.4	102.3	101
3	Northern Iowa	1-0	0-0	+3.8	105.9	102.1	110
4	Belmont	1-0	0-0	+3.6	106.0	102.3	111
5	Drake	1-0	0-0	+3.1	107.1	104.0	114
6	Illinois State	0-1	0-0	+1.1	106.3	105.2	123
7	Valparaiso	1-0	0-0	+0.1	104.4	104.3	125
8	Bradley	1-0	0-0	−0.5	104.6	105.1	129
9	Southern Illinois	1-0	0-0	−1.3	102.9	104.2	140
10	Indiana State	0-1	0-0	−7.3	101.8	109.1	222
11	Evansville	1-0	0-0	−8.5	99.6	108.0	238