Indiana State Sycamores
Next: at Ball State · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ETProjected 71-73 · Game page
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 11-20
Net rating−7.3Rank 222 of 365 · offence 202, defence 245
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 11-20 (6 to 16 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 6-14
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Charlotterank 149 | Home | 54% | 68-67 | L 70-78 | Wrong |
| Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET | at Ball Staterank 260 | Away | 44% | 71-73 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET | vs Milwaukeerank 218 | Home | 64% | 77-73 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at Ball StateA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs MilwaukeeA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maguire MitchellG · transfer from IU Indy | 1 | 36.0 | 15.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −2.5 | −0.3 |
| Karmani GregoryG · transfer from SC Upstate | 1 | 35.0 | 29.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | −1.0 | +0.7 |
| Jackson CooperF | 1 | 28.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Chance PuryearG · transfer from SMU | 1 | 23.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.8 | +0.5 |
| Alessio CalamitaF | 1 | 23.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| EJ McQuillanG | 1 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.3 | +0.2 |
| Duce PaschalG · transfer from Weber St | 1 | 16.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −1.0 | +0.3 |
| Aleksa VlajicF · transfer from Buffalo | 1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −2.7 | −0.1 |
| Kade SpeckmanF | 1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.1 |
| Meechie WhiteG · transfer from E Illinois | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −0.6 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.4%rank 300 | 52.9%rank 351 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 17.7%rank 43 | 19.1%rank 69 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 29.5%rank 351 | 33.6%rank 335 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 23.1%rank 326 | 26.0%rank 278 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.5 expected (−0.5)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −11.8 points a game (they shot 48.0%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −6.7
- Last season's net rating
- −3.1
- Last season's minutes returning
- 0%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −5.8
- Change since preseason
- −0.6
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 101.8 (rank 202)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 109.1 (rank 245)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.3 (rank 200)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −2.5 (rank 127)
Missouri Valley Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murray State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +6.3 | 107.4 | 101.0 | 98 |
| 2 | UIC | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.2 | 107.4 | 102.3 | 101 |
| 3 | Northern Iowa | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.8 | 105.9 | 102.1 | 110 |
| 4 | Belmont | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.6 | 106.0 | 102.3 | 111 |
| 5 | Drake | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.1 | 107.1 | 104.0 | 114 |
| 6 | Illinois State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.1 | 106.3 | 105.2 | 123 |
| 7 | Valparaiso | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.1 | 104.4 | 104.3 | 125 |
| 8 | Bradley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.5 | 104.6 | 105.1 | 129 |
| 9 | Southern Illinois | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.3 | 102.9 | 104.2 | 140 |
| 10 | Indiana State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.3 | 101.8 | 109.1 | 222 |
| 11 | Evansville | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.5 | 99.6 | 108.0 | 238 |