Ball State Cardinals
Next: vs Indiana St · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ETProjected 73-71 · Game page
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 13-20
Net rating−10.6Rank 260 of 365 · offence 297, defence 199
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 13-20 (8 to 18 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-14
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Georgia Southernrank 270 | Away | 37% | 65-69 | L 55-67 | Right |
| Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET | vs Indiana Staterank 223 | Home | 56% | 73-71 | — | |
| Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET | vs Brescianot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: vs Indiana StateA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason JonesF | 1 | 32.0 | 4.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | −1.1 |
| K'Jei ParkerG · transfer from UMass | 1 | 24.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.3 |
| Trey LewisG · transfer from W Michigan | 1 | 23.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −3.1 | −0.4 |
| Javion Guy-KingG · transfer from C Arkansas | 1 | 21.0 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.4 |
| Sean BlakeG · transfer from Vermont | 1 | 21.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Aaron FineG · transfer from Purdue | 1 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | +0.4 | +0.7 |
| Jaden SmithC · transfer from Saint Joseph's | 1 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Joey HartG | 1 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −3.8 | −0.4 |
| Jazz Henderson Jr.G · transfer from Texas Tech | 1 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.2 | +0.6 |
| Kai McGrewF | 1 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Kamden McGilvearyG | 1 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −2.5 | −0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 48.1%rank 351 | 48.4%rank 24 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.6%rank 234 | 18.3%rank 247 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 33.0%rank 58 | 29.9%rank 28 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 26.7%rank 61 | 27.2%rank 321 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.4 expected (−0.4)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +3.4 points a game (they shot 26.3%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +2.8 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −10.7
- Last season's net rating
- −11.4
- Last season's minutes returning
- 17%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.1
- Change since preseason
- +0.1
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 97.3 (rank 297)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 107.9 (rank 199)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 69.9 (rank 335)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −10.8 (rank 214)
Mid-American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (OH) | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.1 | 109.2 | 104.0 | 103 |
| 2 | Akron | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.1 | 108.1 | 103.1 | 104 |
| 3 | Toledo | 0-1 | 0-0 | −0.6 | 105.2 | 105.8 | 132 |
| 4 | Massachusetts | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.9 | 103.4 | 104.3 | 134 |
| 5 | Ohio | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.8 | 106.1 | 107.9 | 144 |
| 6 | Kent State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.8 | 105.2 | 109.0 | 168 |
| 7 | Bowling Green | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.6 | 101.3 | 105.8 | 182 |
| 8 | Eastern Michigan | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.5 | 100.8 | 108.3 | 225 |
| 9 | Central Michigan | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.9 | 101.3 | 110.3 | 244 |
| 10 | Ball State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.6 | 97.3 | 107.9 | 260 |
| 11 | Western Michigan | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.1 | 96.3 | 109.4 | 293 |
| 12 | Buffalo | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.7 | 97.9 | 111.6 | 299 |