Buffalo Bulls
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 10-23
Net rating−13.8Rank 299 of 365 · offence 289, defence 310
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 10-23 (5 to 14 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 6-16
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Marshallrank 172 | Away | 25% | 65-74 | L 65-92 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | at Pittsburghrank 88 | Away | 4% | 62-83 | Live | |
| Mon 9 Nov6:30 PM ET | vs Penn State Schuylkillnot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at PittsburghA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew SteffeG · transfer from S Illinois | 1 | 37.0 | 19.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −2.3 | −0.2 |
| Antoine Lorick IIIF · transfer from Tennessee St | 1 | 37.0 | 28.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.7 |
| J.J. StarlingG · transfer from Syracuse | 1 | 32.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −1.4 | +0.4 |
| Dylan DucommunG · transfer from N Illinois | 1 | 28.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −5.7 | −1.8 |
| Mikkel TyneG · transfer from Richmond | 1 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −3.1 | −0.5 |
| JJ FrakesG | 1 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.2 | −0.3 |
| Matas ButeliauskasF | 1 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −4.7 | −0.5 |
| Kyle JonesG | 1 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | −0.3 |
| Boluwasefe JohnF | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.9 | −0.1 |
| Jalen PitreF · transfer from Tennessee St | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.3 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.7%rank 277 | 51.7%rank 310 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 17.2%rank 14 | 18.3%rank 244 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 29.4%rank 355 | 29.6%rank 20 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.3%rank 123 | 23.8%rank 69 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −7.8 points a game (they shot 42.3%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −11.6
- Last season's net rating
- −2.5
- Last season's minutes returning
- 4%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.8
- Change since preseason
- −2.1
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 97.9 (rank 289)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 111.6 (rank 310)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.5 (rank 170)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −4.1 (rank 145)
Mid-American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (OH) | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.1 | 109.1 | 104.0 | 102 |
| 2 | Akron | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.1 | 108.1 | 103.0 | 103 |
| 3 | Toledo | 0-1 | 0-0 | −0.6 | 105.2 | 105.8 | 132 |
| 4 | Massachusetts | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.9 | 103.4 | 104.3 | 134 |
| 5 | Ohio | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.8 | 106.1 | 107.9 | 144 |
| 6 | Kent State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.9 | 105.1 | 109.0 | 170 |
| 7 | Bowling Green | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.6 | 101.2 | 105.8 | 182 |
| 8 | Eastern Michigan | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.5 | 100.8 | 108.2 | 225 |
| 9 | Central Michigan | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.0 | 101.3 | 110.3 | 244 |
| 10 | Ball State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.6 | 97.3 | 107.9 | 260 |
| 11 | Western Michigan | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.1 | 96.3 | 109.4 | 293 |
| 12 | Buffalo | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.8 | 97.9 | 111.6 | 299 |