Toledo Rockets
Next: at Michigan St · Thu 5 Nov, 8 PM ETProjected 62-89 · Game page
Makes the tournament11%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.4
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-15
Net rating−0.6Rank 132 of 365 · offence 131, defence 151
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 18-15 (12 to 24 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 13-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 11%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 10%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.4
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field11%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Arkansas Staterank 171 | Away | 40% | 70-73 | L 70-71 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET | at Michigan Staterank 8 | Away | 1% | 62-89 | — | |
| Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET | at Marshallrank 172 | Away | 45% | 76-78 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET | vs Wright Staterank 124 | Home | 62% | 80-76 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at Michigan StateA win: 11% · a loss: 11%0 pts
- Sat 7 Nov: at MarshallA win: 11% · a loss: 11%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: vs Wright StateA win: 11% · a loss: 10%+1 pts
- Sun 8 Nov: root for Manhattan against MaineWorth 2.0 points of making the NCAA tournament+2.0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mynor StrongG | 1 | 36.0 | 18.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −0.8 | +0.8 |
| Sean JonesG · transfer from Marquette | 1 | 33.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | −0.1 | +1.2 |
| Jaylan OuwingaF | 1 | 30.0 | 16.0 | 14.0 | 1.0 | +0.3 | +1.2 |
| Angel Montas Jr.G · transfer from UMass Lowell | 1 | 26.0 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | +0.5 | +1.2 |
| Chris RiddleF | 1 | 24.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Austin ParksC | 1 | 17.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +2.5 | +1.4 |
| Will James Jr.G | 1 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | +0.6 |
| Jaylohn AllenG | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | +0.2 |
| Rich BarronF | 1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | +0.2 |
| Rashaun PorterF | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.1%rank 235 | 48.2%rank 21 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.6%rank 232 | 18.1%rank 282 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 33.0%rank 58 | 31.4%rank 133 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 22.6%rank 345 | 22.6%rank 17 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.4 expected (−0.4)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +2.9 points a game (they shot 29.7%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +5.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 0-1
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −1.7
- Last season's net rating
- +2.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 36%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.6
- Change since preseason
- +1.1
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 105.2 (rank 131)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 105.8 (rank 151)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.8 (rank 120)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −4.1 (rank 145)
Mid-American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (OH) | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.1 | 109.2 | 104.0 | 103 |
| 2 | Akron | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.1 | 108.1 | 103.1 | 104 |
| 3 | Toledo | 0-1 | 0-0 | −0.6 | 105.2 | 105.8 | 132 |
| 4 | Massachusetts | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.9 | 103.4 | 104.3 | 134 |
| 5 | Ohio | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.8 | 106.1 | 107.9 | 144 |
| 6 | Kent State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.8 | 105.2 | 109.0 | 168 |
| 7 | Bowling Green | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.6 | 101.3 | 105.8 | 182 |
| 8 | Eastern Michigan | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.5 | 100.8 | 108.3 | 225 |
| 9 | Central Michigan | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.9 | 101.3 | 110.3 | 244 |
| 10 | Ball State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.6 | 97.3 | 107.9 | 260 |
| 11 | Western Michigan | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.1 | 96.3 | 109.4 | 293 |
| 12 | Buffalo | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.7 | 97.9 | 111.6 | 299 |