Western Michigan Broncos
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 11-22
Net rating−13.2Rank 294 of 365 · offence 314, defence 250
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 11-22 (6 to 16 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 6-16
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Old Dominionrank 219 | Away | 38% | 67-71 | L 49-61 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov | vs Kalamazoonot Division I | Home | — | — | W 99-52 | |
| Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET | vs Campbellrank 188 | Home | 42% | 71-74 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET | at Purdue Fort Waynerank 230 | Away | 25% | 68-76 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sun 8 Nov: vs CampbellA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: at Purdue Fort WayneA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner HayhurstG · transfer from Southern Utah | 2 | 25.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | −4.0 | −0.9 |
| Jaylen Washington Jr.G · transfer from UT Rio Grande | 2 | 24.0 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | −0.8 | +0.5 |
| Rob Lee Jr.G · transfer from Lamar | 2 | 23.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Mason BendingerG · transfer from SC Upstate | 2 | 21.5 | 13.5 | 4.5 | 0.5 | −4.2 | −0.8 |
| Augustinas KiudulasF · transfer from Colorado St | 2 | 19.5 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | −1.0 | +0.3 |
| Adam HarakowG · transfer from Wyoming | 2 | 19.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 0.0 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Jordan SigmonG | 2 | 15.0 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −3.5 | −0.4 |
| Julien GomezG · transfer from UT Rio Grande | 2 | 14.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Joshua EliF · transfer from Army | 2 | 10.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | −4.2 | −0.4 |
| Janis JünemannC | 2 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 2.0 | −3.3 | −0.2 |
| Ramere DraperG | 1 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −3.2 | −0.3 |
| DeAaron WatkinsF | 1 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | −0.1 |
| Ben JohnsonG | 1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −3.0 | −0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.1%rank 225 | 49.1%rank 72 | 50.1% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.3%rank 315 | 18.5%rank 130 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.8%rank 129 | 31.7%rank 169 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 23.1%rank 337 | 23.0%rank 23 | 25.6% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.4 expected (−0.4)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +2.3 points a game (they shot 26.7%, league 31.9%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +2.0 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −10.0
- Last season's net rating
- −9.5
- Last season's minutes returning
- 0%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.7
- Change since preseason
- −3.1
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 96.1 (rank 314)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 109.3 (rank 250)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.6 (rank 245)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −7.1 (rank 185)
Mid-American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami (OH) | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.0 | 108.9 | 103.9 | 103 |
| 2 | Akron | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.0 | 107.9 | 103.0 | 104 |
| 3 | Toledo | 0-1 | 0-0 | −0.7 | 105.0 | 105.7 | 133 |
| 4 | Massachusetts | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.0 | 103.2 | 104.2 | 135 |
| 5 | Ohio | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.0 | 105.9 | 107.8 | 144 |
| 6 | Kent State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −4.0 | 104.9 | 108.9 | 169 |
| 7 | Bowling Green | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.7 | 101.0 | 105.7 | 181 |
| 8 | Eastern Michigan | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.6 | 100.6 | 108.2 | 226 |
| 9 | Central Michigan | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.1 | 101.1 | 110.2 | 244 |
| 10 | Ball State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.7 | 97.1 | 107.8 | 262 |
| 11 | Western Michigan | 1-1 | 0-0 | −13.2 | 96.1 | 109.3 | 294 |
| 12 | Buffalo | 0-2 | 0-0 | −14.7 | 97.0 | 111.7 | 311 |