Old Dominion Monarchs
Makes the tournament8%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.1
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-14
Net rating−7.2Rank 219 of 365 · offence 275, defence 156
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 18-14 (13 to 24 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 10%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 7%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.1
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field8%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Western Michiganrank 293 | Home | 62% | 71-67 | W 61-49 | Right |
| Wed 4 Nov | vs Regentnot Division I | Home | — | — | W 91-47 | |
| Sat 7 Nov5 PM ET | at Bucknellrank 331 | Away | 60% | 75-72 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET | at Norfolk Staterank 330 | Away | 59% | 75-72 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: at BucknellA win: 8% · a loss: 7%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: at Norfolk StateA win: 8% · a loss: 7%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zacch WigginsG | 2 | 28.0 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −1.7 | +0.2 |
| Jared TurnerF | 2 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Khoi ThurmonG | 2 | 20.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Bubu BenjaminG · transfer from G Washington | 2 | 16.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +0.4 | +0.7 |
| Adante' HolimanG | 2 | 15.5 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | −1.4 | +0.2 |
| Scottie HubbardG | 2 | 15.5 | 10.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 | −2.5 | −0.1 |
| Zamoku Weluche-UmeF · transfer from NC A&T | 2 | 15.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | −1.0 | +0.3 |
| Kylan HowzeF · transfer from Louisiana Tech | 2 | 15.0 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −1.5 | +0.1 |
| Jotham NwekeF | 2 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.3 | +0.2 |
| CJ LyonsG | 2 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −1.2 | +0.2 |
| Ben NaceyF | 2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 0.5 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Cj HarperG | 2 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.1 |
| Lucio MartiniF | 1 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.2 |
| CJ ParkerG | 1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Rieco HellamsG | 1 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −2.7 | −0.1 |
| Theo GergesG | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −0.8 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.2%rank 303 | 50.4%rank 150 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.6%rank 239 | 19.3%rank 48 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.7%rank 205 | 31.8%rank 243 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 22.6%rank 344 | 22.8%rank 23 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.6 expected (+0.4)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −4.6 points a game (they shot 40.0%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +3.2 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −10.2
- Last season's net rating
- −7.0
- Last season's minutes returning
- 29%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.6
- Change since preseason
- +3.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 98.8 (rank 275)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 106.0 (rank 156)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.5 (rank 170)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −13.1 (rank 228)
Sun Belt Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | App State | 2-0 | 0-0 | −3.3 | 101.7 | 105.0 | 162 |
| 2 | Arkansas State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.0 | 101.0 | 105.0 | 171 |
| 3 | Marshall | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.1 | 103.3 | 107.4 | 172 |
| 4 | Louisiana Tech | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.2 | 104.2 | 108.4 | 174 |
| 5 | Troy | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.8 | 100.7 | 106.5 | 194 |
| 6 | South Alabama | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.5 | 102.1 | 108.6 | 208 |
| 7 | Old Dominion | 2-0 | 0-0 | −7.2 | 98.8 | 106.0 | 219 |
| 8 | Southern Miss | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.5 | 99.2 | 108.7 | 250 |
| 9 | Coastal Carolina | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.0 | 99.3 | 109.3 | 257 |
| 10 | James Madison | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.7 | 100.2 | 110.9 | 265 |
| 11 | Georgia Southern | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.8 | 98.3 | 109.2 | 270 |
| 12 | Georgia State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.2 | 96.1 | 111.2 | 314 |
| 13 | Louisiana | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 95.2 | 110.6 | 321 |
| 14 | UL Monroe | 1-1 | 0-0 | −18.3 | 96.1 | 114.4 | 338 |