Georgia State Panthers
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 11-21
Net rating−15.2Rank 316 of 365 · offence 319, defence 304
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 11-21 (6 to 16 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 6-12
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Bowling Greenrank 182 | Home | 42% | 67-69 | L 73-76 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | at Charlotterank 149 | Away | 12% | 66-80 | Live | |
| Sat 7 Nov1 PM ET | vs Andrewnot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET | at Fresno Staterank 161 | Away | 13% | 67-81 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at CharlotteA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at Fresno StateA win: 1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David ThomasG · transfer from Richmond | 1 | 40.0 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | −3.8 | −1.2 |
| Jacob MeyerG · transfer from UAB | 1 | 39.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | −3.0 | −0.6 |
| Jaden JacksonG · transfer from S Dakota St | 1 | 39.0 | 20.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | −0.6 |
| Jacolb Fredson-ColeF · transfer from McNeese | 1 | 29.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | −0.7 | +0.7 |
| Chris JonesG | 1 | 23.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −5.9 | −1.6 |
| Mason NicholsonC · transfer from Vanderbilt | 1 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −1.2 | +0.3 |
| Jonas SirtautasF · transfer from Loyola MD | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | −0.2 |
| Orion WilsonF | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −3.5 | −0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.9%rank 260 | 52.1%rank 328 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.2%rank 112 | 18.1%rank 284 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 29.0%rank 360 | 32.7%rank 295 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 21.8%rank 361 | 25.7%rank 265 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.4 expected (−0.4)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −3.6 points a game (they shot 38.1%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +3.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 0-1
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −14.1
- Last season's net rating
- −13.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 2%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.9
- Change since preseason
- −1.1
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 96.1 (rank 319)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 111.3 (rank 304)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.5 (rank 158)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −4.6 (rank 157)
Sun Belt Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | App State | 2-0 | 0-0 | −3.3 | 101.7 | 105.0 | 162 |
| 2 | Arkansas State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.1 | 101.0 | 105.0 | 171 |
| 3 | Marshall | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.1 | 103.3 | 107.4 | 172 |
| 4 | Louisiana Tech | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.3 | 104.2 | 108.5 | 175 |
| 5 | Troy | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.8 | 100.7 | 106.5 | 195 |
| 6 | South Alabama | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.5 | 102.1 | 108.7 | 209 |
| 7 | Old Dominion | 2-0 | 0-0 | −7.2 | 98.8 | 106.0 | 220 |
| 8 | Southern Miss | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.5 | 99.3 | 108.7 | 250 |
| 9 | Coastal Carolina | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.1 | 99.3 | 109.4 | 257 |
| 10 | James Madison | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.7 | 100.2 | 110.9 | 266 |
| 11 | Georgia Southern | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.9 | 98.3 | 109.2 | 270 |
| 12 | Georgia State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.2 | 96.1 | 111.3 | 316 |
| 13 | Louisiana | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.4 | 95.3 | 110.7 | 322 |
| 14 | UL Monroe | 1-1 | 0-0 | −18.3 | 96.2 | 114.4 | 338 |