Charlotte 49ers
Next: vs Seton Hall · Mon 9 Nov, 9:30 PM ETProjected 66-72 · Game page
Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-16
Net rating−2.6Rank 150 of 365 · offence 130, defence 203
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 17-16 (12 to 23 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 2%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field2%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Indiana Staterank 221 | Away | 46% | 67-68 | W 78-70 | Wrong |
| Thu 5 Nov | vs Georgia Staterank 315 | Home | 88% | 80-66 | W 77-67 | Right |
| Mon 9 Nov9:30 PM ET | vs Seton Hallrank 95 | Neutral | 28% | 66-72 | — |
Rooting guide
- Mon 9 Nov: vs Seton HallA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshuan TilleryG · transfer from Cincinnati | 2 | 33.0 | 26.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +1.2 |
| Dorian FinisterG · transfer from Louisiana | 2 | 30.0 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | −1.4 | +0.4 |
| Frank OgucheG | 2 | 20.0 | 9.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Dylan GrantF · transfer from Rutgers | 2 | 17.0 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | +0.6 |
| Tyler McKinleyF · transfer from Cincinnati | 2 | 16.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.5 | −0.2 | +0.5 |
| Jordi Rodriguez-StegemeijerG · transfer from Cincinnati | 2 | 16.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | −0.1 | +0.6 |
| Michael WalzC · transfer from Richmond | 2 | 15.5 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +1.1 | +0.8 |
| Miguel AllenF | 2 | 14.5 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Jayden FortF · transfer from Georgetown | 2 | 11.0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 |
| Chaze HarrisG · transfer from South Alabama | 2 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | +1.9 | +0.7 |
| Arden ConyersF | 2 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.3 | +0.1 |
| Peyton MarshallC · transfer from Georgia Tech | 2 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.8 | +0.1 |
| Lance BarnesG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 51.9%rank 39 | 50.0%rank 143 | 50.1% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.9%rank 270 | 17.6%rank 321 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 32.5%rank 91 | 30.6%rank 69 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.8%rank 127 | 24.4%rank 87 | 25.6% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 2.0 won, 1.3 expected (+0.7)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −1.4 points a game (they shot 34.2%, league 31.9%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.6 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −3.1
- Last season's net rating
- −0.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 9%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.6
- Change since preseason
- +0.5
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 105.3 (rank 130)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 107.9 (rank 203)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 69.0 (rank 360)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −11.2 (rank 219)
American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wichita State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +9.7 | 108.7 | 99.0 | 79 |
| 2 | Memphis | 1-0 | 0-0 | +8.7 | 109.4 | 100.7 | 85 |
| 3 | North Texas | 2-0 | 0-0 | +6.3 | 106.6 | 100.3 | 97 |
| 4 | South Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.7 | 108.5 | 102.8 | 100 |
| 5 | Florida Atlantic | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.6 | 104.0 | 103.4 | 124 |
| 6 | Temple | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.9 | 102.7 | 104.5 | 142 |
| 7 | Tulsa | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.9 | 104.4 | 106.3 | 143 |
| 8 | Charlotte | 2-0 | 0-0 | −2.6 | 105.3 | 107.9 | 150 |
| 9 | UAB | 0-1 | 0-0 | −4.1 | 105.6 | 109.6 | 171 |
| 10 | Rice | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.2 | 102.5 | 107.7 | 187 |
| 11 | Tulane | 1-1 | 0-0 | −6.7 | 103.9 | 110.6 | 212 |
| 12 | East Carolina | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.9 | 100.8 | 107.7 | 216 |
| 13 | UTSA | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 97.8 | 113.1 | 318 |