UTSA Roadrunners
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 9-24
Net rating−15.2Rank 315 of 365 · offence 287, defence 335
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 9-24 (5 to 13 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 3-15
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 0%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at San José Staterank 141 | Away | 18% | 62-74 | L 74-95 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov5 PM ET | vs VMIrank 336 | Home | 70% | 79-73 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov10 PM ET | at Seattle Urank 118 | Away | 6% | 65-83 | — |
Rooting guide
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KJ TennerG · transfer from Murray St | 1 | 31.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | −2.4 | −0.2 |
| Isaiah WattsG · transfer from Maryland | 1 | 26.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −2.5 | −0.2 |
| Jayson PetersonF | 1 | 22.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.4 | −0.5 |
| Preston TurnerG · transfer from E Illinois | 1 | 20.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.3 | −0.8 |
| Shey EberweinG · transfer from South Dakota | 1 | 19.0 | 15.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | −4.3 | −0.8 |
| JJ KellyG · transfer from Ohio | 1 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −2.7 | −0.2 |
| Josiah LeGreeG · transfer from Morehead St | 1 | 16.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −3.2 | −0.3 |
| Isaiah ColemanG · transfer from Oklahoma St | 1 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −0.6 | +0.3 |
| Demari WilliamsG · transfer from Hou Christian | 1 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.5 | −0.1 |
| Mike Broxton Jr.F | 1 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | −0.2 |
| Chinedum OkpukparaF | 1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | −0.1 |
| Dorian HayesG | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −6.1 | −0.4 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 51.6%rank 59 | 52.4%rank 340 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.2%rank 94 | 20.7%rank 5 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.8%rank 284 | 33.6%rank 336 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 23.6%rank 306 | 26.0%rank 281 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −4.8 points a game (they shot 38.5%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −3.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −13.2
- Last season's net rating
- −19.3
- Last season's minutes returning
- 13%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −3.0
- Change since preseason
- −2.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 98.0 (rank 287)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 113.2 (rank 335)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.2 (rank 85)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −1.3 (rank 120)
American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wichita State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +9.6 | 108.8 | 99.2 | 80 |
| 2 | Memphis | 1-0 | 0-0 | +8.7 | 109.6 | 100.9 | 85 |
| 3 | South Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.6 | 108.6 | 103.0 | 100 |
| 4 | North Texas | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.9 | 104.0 | 101.1 | 115 |
| 5 | Florida Atlantic | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.1 | 103.6 | 103.7 | 127 |
| 6 | Temple | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.1 | 103.5 | 104.5 | 136 |
| 7 | Tulsa | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.9 | 104.5 | 106.4 | 145 |
| 8 | Charlotte | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.5 | 105.2 | 107.7 | 149 |
| 9 | UAB | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.5 | 106.2 | 109.7 | 164 |
| 10 | Tulane | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.8 | 104.7 | 108.6 | 169 |
| 11 | Rice | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.2 | 102.7 | 107.8 | 188 |
| 12 | East Carolina | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.0 | 100.9 | 107.9 | 216 |
| 13 | UTSA | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.2 | 98.0 | 113.2 | 315 |