Rice Owls

Men's · American Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs East Texas A&M · Thu 5 Nov, 8 PM ET

East Texas A&M34%66%Rice

Projected 75-70 · Game page

Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-18

Net rating−5.2Rank 188 of 365 · offence 181, defence 197

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-18 (10 to 22 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 13.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field2%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Dallas Christiannot Division I	Home	—	—	W 100-55
Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET	vs East Texas A&Mrank 205	Home	66%	75-70	—
Mon 9 Nov10 PM ET	at Stanfordrank 76	Away	10%	66-83	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 1% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs East Texas A&MA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Mon 9 Nov: at StanfordA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Dallas HobbsG	1	21.0	5.0	2.0	7.0	−2.6	−0.2
Jaxson ThompsonG	1	20.0	11.0	1.0	2.0	−1.1	+0.3
Jacob DarG · transfer from Seton Hall	1	19.0	20.0	8.0	1.0	+2.7	+1.6
Jimmy Oladokun Jr.F	1	19.0	15.0	7.0	1.0	−1.1	+0.3
Eternity EguagieF	1	18.0	10.0	8.0	2.0	−1.4	+0.2
Carmelo AdkinsG · transfer from SC Upstate	1	17.0	7.0	6.0	1.0	−0.6	+0.5
Alexander LeethF	1	17.0	5.0	8.0	3.0	−1.1	+0.3
Kaiden MyersG	1	16.0	7.0	0.0	2.0	−1.1	+0.3
Tristan VukoticG	1	15.0	13.0	2.0	0.0	−1.0	+0.3
Bodey HowellG	1	13.0	4.0	3.0	2.0	−2.2	0.0
Zalan FlasarF	1	13.0	0.0	5.0	1.0	−1.0	+0.2
Evan CochranF	1	9.0	0.0	4.0	0.0	−3.1	−0.2
Cole Andrews-HeitzG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	−2.2	0.0
Rohan AminG	1	1.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	−0.7	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 153	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.6%rank 155	18.6%rank 133	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 127	31.7%rank 162	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.2%rank 133	25.2%rank 152	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −5.2
Last season's net rating: −6.1
Last season's minutes returning: 36%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.9
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 102.7 (rank 181)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 107.8 (rank 197)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.8 (rank 252)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

American Conference by rating

13 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Wichita State	1-0	0-0	+9.6	108.8	99.2	80
2	Memphis	1-0	0-0	+8.7	109.6	100.9	85
3	South Florida	1-0	0-0	+5.6	108.6	103.0	100
4	North Texas	1-0	0-0	+2.9	104.0	101.1	115
5	Florida Atlantic	1-0	0-0	−0.1	103.6	103.7	127
6	Temple	1-0	0-0	−1.1	103.5	104.5	136
7	Tulsa	1-0	0-0	−1.9	104.5	106.4	145
8	Charlotte	1-0	0-0	−2.5	105.2	107.7	149
9	UAB	0-1	0-0	−3.5	106.2	109.7	164
10	Tulane	1-0	0-0	−3.8	104.7	108.6	169
11	Rice	1-0	0-0	−5.2	102.7	107.8	188
12	East Carolina	1-0	0-0	−7.0	100.9	107.9	216
13	UTSA	0-1	0-0	−15.2	98.0	113.2	315