East Texas A&M Lions
Makes the tournament8%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.9
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-16
Net rating−6.5Rank 209 of 365 · offence 258, defence 153
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 18-16 (13 to 24 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 13-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 6%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 8%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.9
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field8%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Oklahomarank 48 | Away | 1% | 54-84 | W 68-64 | Wrong |
| Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET | at Ricerank 187 | Away | 34% | 70-75 | Live | |
| Wed 11 Nov11:30 AM ET | vs Fairleigh Dickinsonrank 344 | Home | 87% | 79-66 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at RiceA win: 8% · a loss: 8%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs Fairleigh DickinsonA win: 8% · a loss: 8%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed DiakiteF | 1 | 33.0 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Thomas DuchampF | 1 | 27.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Alonzo DoddG · transfer from App State | 1 | 25.0 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +0.7 | +1.2 |
| Bo AldridgeF | 1 | 25.0 | 22.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Gasper SkorjancG | 1 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | −1.7 | +0.2 |
| Amar HotF | 1 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.7 | +0.2 |
| Maxime CarrioF | 1 | 16.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Jaxson FordF · transfer from Sam Houston | 1 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −0.9 | +0.3 |
| Kollin TolbertG | 1 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.3 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 51.4%rank 59 | 48.7%rank 50 | 50.1% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.8%rank 259 | 19.5%rank 33 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 33.8%rank 31 | 32.8%rank 298 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 23.9%rank 305 | 26.2%rank 264 | 25.6% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.0 expected (+1.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +4.1 points a game (they shot 25.0%, league 31.9%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +5.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 1-0
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −12.1
- Last season's net rating
- −12.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 7%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.2
- Change since preseason
- +5.6
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 99.2 (rank 258)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 105.7 (rank 153)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.1 (rank 199)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +15.4 (rank 40)
Southland Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McNeese | 1-1 | 0-0 | +5.6 | 110.8 | 105.1 | 101 |
| 2 | Stephen F. Austin | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.2 | 102.1 | 105.3 | 160 |
| 3 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.6 | 101.7 | 107.3 | 193 |
| 4 | East Texas A&M | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.5 | 99.2 | 105.7 | 209 |
| 5 | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.1 | 98.9 | 107.0 | 232 |
| 6 | Nicholls | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.4 | 100.1 | 108.5 | 235 |
| 7 | Lamar | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.3 | 97.5 | 108.8 | 276 |
| 8 | SE Louisiana | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.3 | 96.1 | 109.5 | 296 |
| 9 | Northwestern State | 0-2 | 0-0 | −14.0 | 95.7 | 109.6 | 300 |
| 10 | Houston Christian | 1-0 | 0-0 | −14.0 | 96.9 | 111.0 | 304 |
| 11 | LSU New Orleans | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.9 | 97.3 | 112.3 | 314 |
| 12 | Incarnate Word | 0-2 | 0-0 | −18.5 | 91.9 | 110.4 | 341 |