Nicholls Colonels
Makes the tournament4%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-18
Net rating−8.4Rank 237 of 365 · offence 244, defence 230
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-18 (10 to 23 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 11-11
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 2%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 4%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field4%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs North Americannot Division I | Home | — | — | W 110-56 | |
| Fri 6 Nov7:30 PM ET | at UABrank 164 | Away | 25% | 73-82 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7:30 PM ET | at Tulanerank 169 | Away | 26% | 72-80 | — |
Rooting guide
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan MatthewsG | 1 | 23.0 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −2.9 | −0.3 |
| Sheridan SharpG · transfer from S Indiana | 1 | 19.0 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| AJ DentF · transfer from Tarleton St | 1 | 19.0 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Jah-Mel BruceG | 1 | 18.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −1.1 | +0.3 |
| AJ McPetersG | 1 | 18.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −1.1 | +0.3 |
| Christian WinborneG | 1 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | −1.4 | +0.2 |
| Hunter CarterG · transfer from Hawai'i | 1 | 15.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.1 | +0.3 |
| Junior SileuF · transfer from W Michigan | 1 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | −2.9 | −0.2 |
| Arop AropF · transfer from Memphis | 1 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.3 |
| Doyel Cockrill IIIG · transfer from Chicago St | 1 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | −0.6 | +0.3 |
| Cheikh BiteyeG | 1 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | −0.9 | +0.2 |
| Cameron SimpsonG · transfer from Texas St | 1 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.1 | −0.2 |
| Jared TaylorF | 1 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −0.8 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.4%rank 135 | 50.4%rank 153 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.6%rank 155 | 18.6%rank 133 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.7%rank 127 | 31.7%rank 162 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.2%rank 133 | 25.2%rank 152 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −8.4
- Last season's net rating
- −6.9
- Last season's minutes returning
- 10%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −3.6
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 100.2 (rank 244)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 108.6 (rank 230)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.7 (rank 140)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Southland Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McNeese | 1-0 | 0-0 | +8.5 | 111.5 | 102.9 | 86 |
| 2 | Stephen F. Austin | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.2 | 102.2 | 105.5 | 160 |
| 3 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.6 | 101.8 | 107.4 | 193 |
| 4 | East Texas A&M | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.4 | 99.4 | 105.8 | 205 |
| 5 | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.0 | 99.1 | 107.1 | 232 |
| 6 | Nicholls | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.4 | 100.2 | 108.6 | 237 |
| 7 | Northwestern State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.6 | 98.9 | 107.5 | 239 |
| 8 | Lamar | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.3 | 97.6 | 108.9 | 276 |
| 9 | SE Louisiana | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.2 | 96.3 | 109.6 | 295 |
| 10 | Incarnate Word | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.8 | 97.1 | 110.9 | 300 |
| 11 | Houston Christian | 1-0 | 0-0 | −14.0 | 97.0 | 111.1 | 304 |
| 12 | LSU New Orleans | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.8 | 97.5 | 112.3 | 311 |