UAB Blazers

Men's · American Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Nicholls · Fri 6 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Nicholls25%75%UAB

Projected 82-73 · Game page

Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.1

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-18

Net rating−3.5Rank 164 of 365 · offence 114, defence 262

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-18 (10 to 22 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 2%
Average seed if in the field: 13.1
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field2%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs McNeeserank 86	Neutral	37%	66-71	L 78-99	Right
Fri 6 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Nichollsrank 237	Home	75%	82-73	—
Mon 9 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Florida A&Mrank 355	Home	95%	89-69	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 1% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs NichollsA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs Florida A&MA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Deuce JonesG · transfer from Saint Joseph's	1	31.0	12.0	4.0	2.0	+0.5	+1.4
Justyn FernandezG · transfer from Delaware	1	26.0	11.0	3.0	1.0	−1.5	+0.2
Jeremy ElyzeeG · transfer from SE Louisiana	1	26.0	4.0	2.0	1.0	−0.8	+0.6
Elijah DuvalG · transfer from Southern Utah	1	25.0	15.0	2.0	5.0	−0.6	+0.6
Salim LondonG	1	21.0	10.0	1.0	1.0	−0.8	+0.5
T.J. CaldwellG · transfer from Arkansas St	1	19.0	10.0	3.0	2.0	−0.1	+0.7
Aleks AlstonF · transfer from Maryland	1	14.0	5.0	5.0	1.0	−0.7	+0.3
Matt MboleC	1	14.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	−1.5	+0.1
Korie CorbettG	1	10.0	6.0	0.0	0.0	−1.4	+0.1
Antallah Sandlin-ElF	1	6.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.1
Tim HollidayG	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.1
Kaleb DavisC	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.5%rank 125	52.9%rank 350	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.8%rank 249	17.4%rank 347	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.4%rank 232	33.5%rank 333	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	29.0%rank 9	23.5%rank 52	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.4 expected (−0.4)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −9.8 points a game (they shot 44.4%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.7 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −0.2
Last season's net rating: +4.6
Last season's minutes returning: 19%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −4.2
Change since preseason: −3.3

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 106.2 (rank 114)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 109.7 (rank 262)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.2 (rank 85)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +8.5 (rank 83)

American Conference by rating

13 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Wichita State	1-0	0-0	+9.6	108.8	99.2	80
2	Memphis	1-0	0-0	+8.7	109.6	100.9	85
3	South Florida	1-0	0-0	+5.6	108.6	103.0	100
4	North Texas	1-0	0-0	+2.9	104.0	101.1	115
5	Florida Atlantic	1-0	0-0	−0.1	103.6	103.7	127
6	Temple	1-0	0-0	−1.1	103.5	104.5	136
7	Tulsa	1-0	0-0	−1.9	104.5	106.4	145
8	Charlotte	1-0	0-0	−2.5	105.2	107.7	149
9	UAB	0-1	0-0	−3.5	106.2	109.7	164
10	Tulane	1-0	0-0	−3.8	104.7	108.6	169
11	Rice	1-0	0-0	−5.2	102.7	107.8	188
12	East Carolina	1-0	0-0	−7.0	100.9	107.9	216
13	UTSA	0-1	0-0	−15.2	98.0	113.2	315