Wichita State Shockers

Men's · American Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs USC · Sun 8 Nov, 11 PM ET

USC65%35%Wichita St

Projected 74-78 · Game page

Makes the tournament37%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.1

Wins the national title<1%Final Four <1% · projected 26-9

Net rating+9.6Rank 80 of 365 · offence 90, defence 58

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 26-9 (21 to 30 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 39%
Wins the conference tournament: 30%
Average seed if in the field: 11.1
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field37%
Round of 329%
Sweet 162%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Wed 4 Nov	vs Cal State Northridgerank 190	Home	95%	87-67	W 79-67	Right
Sun 8 Nov11 PM ET	vs USCrank 48	Neutral	35%	74-78	—
Wed 11 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Friendsnot Division I	Home	—	—	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 37% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs USCA win: 41% · a loss: 36%+6 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kenyon GilesG	1	36.0	21.0	1.0	8.0	+2.9	+3.2
Bryce HeardG · transfer from Dayton	1	34.0	6.0	7.0	0.0	+0.7	+1.7
Jordan FrisonG · transfer from Chattanooga	1	34.0	6.0	5.0	7.0	+0.5	+1.6
Jahari LongG · transfer from George Mason	1	33.0	12.0	5.0	1.0	+1.6	+2.1
William BergC	1	28.0	26.0	16.0	0.0	+4.8	+3.4
Michael Gray Jr.G	1	17.0	5.0	2.0	1.0	+1.3	+1.0
Emmanuel OkoraforF	1	7.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	+4.2	+0.8
Cyr MalongaC · transfer from New Mexico St	1	5.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	+0.2	+0.2
Jaret ValenciaF	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.5	+0.2
Joy IghovodjaG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.6	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	47.9%rank 359	49.5%rank 71	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	16.5%rank 3	17.4%rank 345	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	29.9%rank 337	31.4%rank 136	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	23.5%rank 309	25.1%rank 146	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +5.4 points a game (they shot 23.8%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +11.4
Last season's net rating: +12.4
Last season's minutes returning: 71%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.6
Change since preseason: −1.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 108.8 (rank 90)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 99.2 (rank 58)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.6 (rank 155)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −5.4 (rank 161)

American Conference by rating

13 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Wichita State	1-0	0-0	+9.6	108.8	99.2	80
2	Memphis	1-0	0-0	+8.7	109.6	100.9	85
3	South Florida	1-0	0-0	+5.6	108.6	103.0	100
4	North Texas	1-0	0-0	+2.9	104.0	101.1	115
5	Florida Atlantic	1-0	0-0	−0.1	103.6	103.7	127
6	Temple	1-0	0-0	−1.1	103.5	104.5	136
7	Tulsa	1-0	0-0	−1.9	104.5	106.4	145
8	Charlotte	1-0	0-0	−2.5	105.2	107.7	149
9	UAB	0-1	0-0	−3.5	106.2	109.7	164
10	Tulane	1-0	0-0	−3.8	104.7	108.6	169
11	Rice	1-0	0-0	−5.2	102.7	107.8	188
12	East Carolina	1-0	0-0	−7.0	100.9	107.9	216
13	UTSA	0-1	0-0	−15.2	98.0	113.2	315