Memphis Tigers

Men's · American Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs VCU · Sat 7 Nov, 3 PM ET

VCU46%54%Memphis

Projected 79-77 · Game page

Makes the tournament34%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 10.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 22-12

Net rating+8.7Rank 85 of 365 · offence 85, defence 87

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-12 (16 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 34%
Wins the conference tournament: 25%
Average seed if in the field: 10.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field34%
Round of 328%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Iowa Staterank 9	Neutral	6%	60-80	W 80-76	Wrong
Sat 7 Nov3 PM ET	vs VCUrank 60	Home	54%	79-77	—
Tue 10 Nov7:15 PM ET	at Vanderbiltrank 14	Away	8%	68-85	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 34% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs VCUA win: 36% · a loss: 32%+4 pts
Tue 10 Nov: at VanderbiltA win: 42% · a loss: 34%+8 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Rihards VaversF · transfer from Washington St	1	38.0	15.0	5.0	2.0	+1.9	+2.8
Tylik WeeksF · transfer from Southern Miss	1	35.0	8.0	3.0	4.0	+1.6	+2.3
Jayden ReidG · transfer from Northwestern	1	28.0	26.0	1.0	1.0	+3.0	+2.6
Luke AlmodovarG · transfer from SE Missouri	1	28.0	18.0	8.0	2.0	+1.1	+1.6
Corneilous WilliamsF · transfer from North Alabama	1	22.0	6.0	8.0	0.0	−0.5	+0.6
Josh HollowayG · transfer from Texas A&M	1	18.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	+3.2	+1.7
Maxim LogueF · transfer from FAU	1	12.0	0.0	5.0	1.0	+2.4	+1.0
Brandin CummingsG · transfer from Pitt	1	7.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+2.2	+0.5
Jerry DengF · transfer from NC State	1	6.0	5.0	1.0	0.0	+2.8	+0.5
Cello Jackson Jr.G	1	6.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−0.3	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.3%rank 218	49.8%rank 92	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 150	18.1%rank 290	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.3%rank 94	32.3%rank 268	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	28.4%rank 14	27.3%rank 325	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.1 expected (+0.9)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +7.4 points a game (they shot 20.0%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 1-0

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +5.4
Last season's net rating: +3.8
Last season's minutes returning: 11%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.3
Change since preseason: +3.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 109.6 (rank 85)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 100.9 (rank 87)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.7 (rank 44)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +27.2 (rank 8)

American Conference by rating

13 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Wichita State	1-0	0-0	+9.6	108.8	99.3	80
2	Memphis	1-0	0-0	+8.7	109.6	100.9	85
3	North Texas	2-0	0-0	+6.2	106.7	100.5	98
4	South Florida	1-0	0-0	+5.6	108.6	103.0	101
5	Florida Atlantic	1-0	0-0	−0.1	103.6	103.8	127
6	Temple	1-0	0-0	−1.1	103.5	104.6	136
7	Tulsa	1-0	0-0	−1.9	104.5	106.4	146
8	Charlotte	1-0	0-0	−2.5	105.2	107.7	149
9	Tulane	1-0	0-0	−3.8	104.8	108.6	168
10	UAB	0-1	0-0	−4.1	105.7	109.8	170
11	Rice	1-0	0-0	−5.2	102.7	107.9	188
12	East Carolina	1-0	0-0	−7.0	100.9	107.9	216
13	UTSA	0-1	0-0	−15.2	98.1	113.2	314