VCU Rams

Men's · Atlantic 10 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Memphis · Sat 7 Nov, 3 PM ET

VCU46%54%Memphis

Projected 77-79 · Game page

Makes the tournament41%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 10.2

Wins the national title<1%Final Four <1% · projected 24-8

Net rating+12.8Rank 60 of 365 · offence 50, defence 75

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 24-8 (19 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 33%
Wins the conference tournament: 25%
Average seed if in the field: 10.2
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field41%
Round of 3214%
Sweet 163%
Elite Eight1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Little Rockrank 266	Home	99%	82-54	W 82-72	Right
Sat 7 Nov3 PM ET	at Memphisrank 85	Away	46%	77-79	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs NJITrank 349	Home	99%	91-61	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 41% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: at MemphisA win: 45% · a loss: 38%+7 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs NJITA win: 41% · a loss: 38%+3 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Nyk LewisG	1	37.0	15.0	3.0	5.0	+2.8	+3.2
Lazar DjokovicF	1	35.0	15.0	4.0	1.0	+3.9	+3.7
Torey AlstonF · transfer from MTSU	1	31.0	17.0	12.0	1.0	+2.1	+2.3
Blake HarperG · transfer from Creighton	1	30.0	14.0	3.0	1.0	+1.7	+2.0
Ahmad NowellG	1	22.0	6.0	4.0	1.0	+1.8	+1.5
Brandon JenningsG	1	14.0	7.0	4.0	0.0	+3.9	+1.5
Michael BelleF	1	12.0	1.0	3.0	0.0	+3.2	+1.1
Tyrell WardG	1	8.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	+2.9	+0.7
Sammy JacksonG	1	7.0	0.0	1.0	2.0	−1.0	+0.1
Jordan TilleryG	1	3.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	+2.9	+0.3
Nyle Ralph-BeyerG · transfer from Sacred Heart	1	1.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	−0.7	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.0%rank 318	50.6%rank 249	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.9%rank 272	18.8%rank 105	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.8%rank 67	33.3%rank 327	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	30.8%rank 3	26.4%rank 292	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +0.5 points a game (they shot 31.2%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −2.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +16.5
Last season's net rating: +17.4
Last season's minutes returning: 59%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.6
Change since preseason: −3.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 113.1 (rank 50)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 100.3 (rank 75)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.8 (rank 125)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −10.7 (rank 211)

Atlantic 10 Conference by rating

14 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Saint Louis	1-0	0-0	+14.2	114.7	100.5	56
2	VCU	1-0	0-0	+12.8	113.1	100.3	60
3	George Mason	1-0	0-0	+7.4	107.0	99.6	91
4	George Washington	1-0	0-0	+7.2	106.0	98.8	93
5	Rhode Island	1-0	0-0	+6.8	108.5	101.6	95
6	Dayton	1-0	0-0	+6.4	109.1	102.7	97
7	Davidson	1-0	0-0	+5.0	107.0	102.0	104
8	Duquesne	1-0	0-0	+2.8	105.4	102.6	116
9	Saint Joseph's	1-0	0-0	+1.4	104.6	103.2	122
10	Fordham	0-1	0-0	−0.3	103.7	103.9	128
11	Richmond	1-0	0-0	−1.1	105.7	106.8	136
12	Loyola Chicago	1-0	0-0	−1.6	103.6	105.2	142
13	St. Bonaventure	0-1	0-0	−5.0	102.4	107.3	183
14	La Salle	0-1	0-0	−6.1	100.9	107.0	199