Saint Joseph's Hawks
Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-14
Net rating+1.4Rank 122 of 365 · offence 142, defence 112
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 18-14 (12 to 23 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 2%
- Average seed if in the field
- 11.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field3%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov | vs Longwoodrank 225 | Home | 88% | 82-67 | W 82-73 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov4 PM ET | vs Lafayetterank 324 | Home | 94% | 82-64 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov3 PM ET | vs South Floridarank 101 | Neutral | 39% | 76-79 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs LafayetteA win: 3% · a loss: 3%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs South FloridaA win: 4% · a loss: 3%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin WillifordG | 1 | 32.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | +0.2 | +1.3 |
| Jaiden Glover-ToscanoG | 1 | 31.0 | 22.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | +1.7 | +2.1 |
| Khaafiq MyersG | 1 | 31.0 | 17.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | +0.5 | +1.4 |
| Sean LoganF · transfer from Davidson | 1 | 30.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | +1.8 | +2.1 |
| BJ RansonG | 1 | 24.0 | 17.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −1.1 | +0.4 |
| Logan CareyG · transfer from Maine | 1 | 20.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −1.4 | +0.2 |
| Keoni SaccoF | 1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −0.7 | +0.2 |
| Davis KemperF | 1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.2 |
| Owen VernaG | 1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.2 |
| Mekai JohnsonG | 1 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.6%rank 285 | 50.3%rank 147 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 17.8%rank 50 | 17.6%rank 331 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.2%rank 326 | 32.0%rank 249 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.2%rank 132 | 23.8%rank 67 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +7.7 points a game (they shot 26.2%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +4.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +3.2
- Last season's net rating
- +4.3
- Last season's minutes returning
- 37%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.2
- Change since preseason
- −1.9
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 104.6 (rank 142)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 103.3 (rank 112)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.9 (rank 108)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −7.5 (rank 188)
Atlantic 10 Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Louis | 1-0 | 0-0 | +14.2 | 114.7 | 100.5 | 56 |
| 2 | VCU | 1-0 | 0-0 | +12.8 | 113.1 | 100.3 | 60 |
| 3 | George Mason | 1-0 | 0-0 | +7.4 | 107.0 | 99.6 | 89 |
| 4 | George Washington | 1-0 | 0-0 | +7.2 | 106.0 | 98.8 | 91 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 1-0 | 0-0 | +6.8 | 108.5 | 101.7 | 93 |
| 6 | Dayton | 1-0 | 0-0 | +6.4 | 109.1 | 102.7 | 96 |
| 7 | Davidson | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.0 | 107.0 | 102.0 | 105 |
| 8 | Duquesne | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.8 | 105.4 | 102.6 | 116 |
| 9 | Saint Joseph's | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.4 | 104.6 | 103.3 | 122 |
| 10 | Fordham | 0-1 | 0-0 | −0.2 | 103.7 | 103.9 | 128 |
| 11 | Richmond | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.1 | 105.7 | 106.8 | 136 |
| 12 | Loyola Chicago | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.7 | 103.6 | 105.3 | 142 |
| 13 | St. Bonaventure | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.0 | 102.4 | 107.4 | 185 |
| 14 | La Salle | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.1 | 100.9 | 107.1 | 199 |