Longwood Lancers
Next: vs NC Central · Sat 7 Nov, 3 PM ETProjected 80-66 · Game page
Makes the tournament6%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-15
Net rating−7.5Rank 225 of 365 · offence 224, defence 219
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 19-15 (14 to 24 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 4%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 6%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field6%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Pfeiffernot Division I | Home | — | — | W 123-67 | |
| Wed 4 Nov | at Saint Joseph'srank 122 | Away | 12% | 67-82 | L 73-82 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov3 PM ET | vs North Carolina Centralrank 350 | Home | 89% | 80-66 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET | vs St. Mary's (MD)not Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs North Carolina CentralA win: 6% · a loss: 6%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alphonzo Billups IIIG | 2 | 26.0 | 13.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | −1.2 | +0.4 |
| MJ WilliamsG · transfer from E Kentucky | 2 | 25.5 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | −1.1 | +0.5 |
| Jaylen BenardG | 2 | 24.0 | 13.5 | 10.0 | 1.5 | −1.7 | +0.2 |
| TJ RobinsonG · transfer from Saint Peter's | 2 | 18.0 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | −0.9 | +0.4 |
| Kany MusungayF · transfer from Boston College | 2 | 17.5 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Elijah KellyG | 2 | 17.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Jorke AavG | 2 | 14.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | −1.4 | +0.2 |
| Lazar MilosevicF · transfer from Duquesne | 2 | 13.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | −1.2 | +0.2 |
| Isaiah KalalaF | 2 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | −3.0 | −0.2 |
| Will DopferG | 2 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.1 |
| Abu YarmahG | 2 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.0 | +0.1 |
| Ben WessonG · transfer from Vermont | 1 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Elijah ThomasG | 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −0.8 | +0.2 |
| Domas KauzonasF · transfer from UNC Greensboro | 1 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −4.2 | −0.3 |
| Gerald Burr IIIG | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −0.8 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.3%rank 217 | 49.6%rank 80 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 17.6%rank 34 | 17.8%rank 317 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 32.0%rank 115 | 30.2%rank 38 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 23.8%rank 299 | 25.2%rank 231 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +1.2 points a game (they shot 30.8%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +3.4 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −9.3
- Last season's net rating
- −8.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 27%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.6
- Change since preseason
- +1.9
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 100.9 (rank 224)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 108.3 (rank 219)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.2 (rank 79)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +1.4 (rank 112)
Big South Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | High Point | 2-0 | 0-0 | +8.0 | 107.3 | 99.2 | 86 |
| 2 | Presbyterian | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.3 | 103.3 | 109.6 | 204 |
| 3 | Radford | 0-2 | 0-0 | −7.3 | 100.9 | 108.2 | 221 |
| 4 | Longwood | 1-1 | 0-0 | −7.5 | 100.9 | 108.3 | 225 |
| 5 | Winthrop | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.8 | 102.6 | 111.4 | 242 |
| 6 | UNC Asheville | 1-1 | 0-0 | −9.7 | 101.1 | 110.8 | 256 |
| 7 | Charleston Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.5 | 100.0 | 110.5 | 259 |
| 8 | South Carolina Upstate | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.3 | 96.9 | 111.2 | 308 |
| 9 | Gardner-Webb | 0-1 | 0-0 | −19.6 | 92.4 | 112.1 | 345 |