UNC Asheville Bulldogs
Next: vs W Carolina · Sat 7 Nov, 5:30 PM ETProjected 76-73 · Game page
Makes the tournament4%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.9
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-18
Net rating−9.8Rank 252 of 365 · offence 218, defence 288
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 15-18 (10 to 21 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 2%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 4%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.9
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field4%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Richmondrank 134 | Away | 22% | 63-72 | L 77-100 | Right |
| Wed 4 Nov | vs Erskinenot Division I | Home | — | — | W 101-74 | |
| Sat 7 Nov5:30 PM ET | vs Western Carolinarank 237 | Home | 60% | 76-73 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET | at West Georgiarank 319 | Away | 52% | 74-74 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs Western CarolinaA win: 4% · a loss: 4%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: at West GeorgiaA win: 4% · a loss: 4%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelcy PhippsG · transfer from Portland St | 2 | 26.5 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | −1.5 | +0.3 |
| Daniel ThomasF | 2 | 25.0 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 2.5 | −2.6 | −0.2 |
| Ja'Corey LipkinsG | 2 | 24.0 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Khayri DunnG · transfer from GA Southern | 2 | 22.0 | 12.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −3.1 | −0.4 |
| Connor DubskyG | 2 | 21.5 | 15.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | −2.2 | −0.1 |
| Tylon ChatmanG | 2 | 21.5 | 8.0 | 0.5 | 5.5 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Myles MayfieldF | 2 | 20.5 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | −2.7 | −0.2 |
| Brayden RiversSF | 2 | 12.0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.2 |
| Jermaurhiyun AndersonG · transfer from Louisiana Tech | 1 | 18.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Logan JohnsonG | 1 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.8 | +0.2 |
| Ian BaileyPG | 1 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | −0.8 | +0.2 |
| Abou MagassaF · transfer from Wyoming | 1 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 | +0.5 |
| Quintin MansfieldF | 1 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 51.3%rank 61 | 52.7%rank 348 | 50.1% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.9%rank 278 | 18.8%rank 103 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 32.2%rank 103 | 31.1%rank 108 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 24.3%rank 282 | 24.9%rank 118 | 25.6% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −15.1 points a game (they shot 52.0%, league 31.9%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −8.9
- Last season's net rating
- −5.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 27%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.0
- Change since preseason
- −0.8
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 100.9 (rank 218)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 110.7 (rank 288)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.8 (rank 223)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −1.0 (rank 117)
Big South Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | High Point | 2-0 | 0-0 | +8.1 | 107.1 | 99.0 | 87 |
| 2 | Presbyterian | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.2 | 103.2 | 109.4 | 202 |
| 3 | Radford | 0-2 | 0-0 | −7.5 | 100.6 | 108.1 | 225 |
| 4 | Longwood | 1-1 | 0-0 | −7.6 | 100.6 | 108.2 | 227 |
| 5 | Winthrop | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.8 | 102.5 | 111.2 | 240 |
| 6 | UNC Asheville | 1-1 | 0-0 | −9.8 | 100.9 | 110.7 | 252 |
| 7 | Charleston Southern | 1-1 | 0-0 | −10.7 | 99.7 | 110.4 | 259 |
| 8 | South Carolina Upstate | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.4 | 96.7 | 111.1 | 308 |
| 9 | Gardner-Webb | 0-1 | 0-0 | −19.7 | 92.2 | 112.0 | 347 |