Winthrop Eagles
Next: vs North Dakota · Sat 7 Nov, 12 PM ETProjected 82-75 · Game page
Makes the tournament4%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-17
Net rating−8.8Rank 242 of 365 · offence 184, defence 306
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-17 (12 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 2%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 4%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field4%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Queens Universityrank 152 | Neutral | 49% | 73-73 | L 98-103 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov12 PM ET | vs North Dakotarank 289 | Home | 74% | 82-75 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET | at Kennesaw Staterank 153 | Away | 22% | 75-85 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs North DakotaA win: 5% · a loss: 4%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at Kennesaw StateA win: 5% · a loss: 4%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keshawn FisherG · transfer from Detroit Mercy | 1 | 35.0 | 32.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | −1.2 | +0.6 |
| Spence SimsG · transfer from Gardner-Webb | 1 | 35.0 | 19.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | −4.7 | −1.7 |
| George NatsvlishviliF · transfer from North Dakota | 1 | 31.0 | 16.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | −1.4 | +0.4 |
| Anthony Smith IIIG · transfer from North Dakota | 1 | 30.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | −1.2 | +0.5 |
| Seifeldin HendawyG | 1 | 27.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | −0.4 | +0.8 |
| Kyle MorganG | 1 | 27.0 | 16.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | −1.5 | +0.3 |
| Eesher Singh SaraiG | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −0.9 | +0.1 |
| Kaleb EvansG | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −0.9 | +0.1 |
| Tai HamiltonF | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +0.3 | 0.0 |
| Joel CwikF | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.8 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 52.9%rank 14 | 52.3%rank 336 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.3%rank 119 | 17.5%rank 342 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.6%rank 216 | 30.6%rank 62 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 21.8%rank 363 | 24.8%rank 126 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.5 expected (−0.5)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −3.8 points a game (they shot 37.0%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 0-1
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −6.8
- Last season's net rating
- +2.0
- Last season's minutes returning
- 11%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −7.1
- Change since preseason
- −2.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 102.6 (rank 184)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 111.4 (rank 306)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.3 (rank 17)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −2.6 (rank 129)
Big South Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | High Point | 2-0 | 0-0 | +8.0 | 107.3 | 99.2 | 87 |
| 2 | Presbyterian | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.3 | 103.3 | 109.6 | 203 |
| 3 | Radford | 0-2 | 0-0 | −7.3 | 100.8 | 108.2 | 221 |
| 4 | Longwood | 1-1 | 0-0 | −7.5 | 100.8 | 108.3 | 225 |
| 5 | Winthrop | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.8 | 102.6 | 111.4 | 242 |
| 6 | UNC Asheville | 1-1 | 0-0 | −9.7 | 101.0 | 110.7 | 256 |
| 7 | Charleston Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.6 | 99.9 | 110.5 | 259 |
| 8 | South Carolina Upstate | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.3 | 96.9 | 111.2 | 308 |
| 9 | Gardner-Webb | 0-1 | 0-0 | −19.7 | 92.4 | 112.0 | 346 |