Kennesaw State Owls

Men's · Conference USA · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Austin Peay · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Austin Peay26%74%Kennesaw St

Projected 81-73 · Game page

Makes the tournament13%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.2

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-12

Net rating−2.8Rank 153 of 365 · offence 167, defence 163

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-12 (14 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 17%
Wins the conference tournament: 13%
Average seed if in the field: 13.2
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field13%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Midwaynot Division I	Home	—	—	W 116-57
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs Austin Peayrank 217	Home	74%	81-73	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs Winthroprank 242	Home	78%	85-75	—
Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET	vs LaGrangenot Division I	Home	—	—	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 13% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Austin PeayA win: 13% · a loss: 13%+1 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs WinthropA win: 13% · a loss: 13%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Antwane DanielsG	1	24.0	12.0	4.0	6.0	−1.4	+0.3
Zyree BrownG	1	24.0	9.0	3.0	7.0	−1.4	+0.3
Jacoby HillG · transfer from Jax State	1	17.0	10.0	4.0	5.0	−0.2	+0.6
Amir TaylorF	1	17.0	4.0	7.0	1.0	+0.6	+0.8
Avery Thomas IIF · transfer from Louisiana Tech	1	17.0	6.0	8.0	3.0	+1.1	+1.0
CJ BeaumontG · transfer from Sam Houston	1	16.0	11.0	9.0	1.0	−0.2	+0.5
Trey SimpsonF	1	15.0	10.0	3.0	1.0	+0.9	+0.8
Keriawn BerryF	1	13.0	9.0	6.0	1.0	−1.1	+0.2
Levi BallNA	1	12.0	11.0	3.0	1.0	−1.1	+0.2
Kyler TheophileF	1	12.0	18.0	6.0	2.0	−1.1	+0.2
Tobiaz TolbertF	1	11.0	3.0	5.0	0.0	−1.1	+0.2
Kaden RickardG	1	9.0	7.0	1.0	1.0	−0.6	+0.2
Anthony EnohF · transfer from Georgia St	1	7.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	−2.1	0.0
Dozie OnyirimbaF	1	6.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	−1.3	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 156	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 155	18.5%rank 133	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.8%rank 128	31.8%rank 162	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.1%rank 133	25.1%rank 154	25.1%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −2.8
Last season's net rating: +1.3
Last season's minutes returning: 31%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.7
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 103.5 (rank 167)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 106.3 (rank 163)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.8 (rank 36)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Conference USA by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Western Kentucky	1-0	0-0	−0.7	104.0	104.7	133
2	Liberty	0-1	0-0	−1.7	104.3	106.0	143
3	Sam Houston	0-1	0-0	−1.9	103.7	105.6	147
4	Kennesaw State	1-0	0-0	−2.8	103.5	106.3	153
5	Middle Tennessee	1-0	0-0	−3.8	102.8	106.6	166
6	New Mexico State	1-0	0-0	−4.5	102.0	106.6	180
7	Missouri State	1-0	0-0	−5.5	102.0	107.5	192
8	Florida International	1-0	0-0	−6.7	100.5	107.2	213
9	Jacksonville State	1-0	0-0	−7.7	100.3	107.9	227
10	Delaware	1-0	0-0	−11.1	100.0	111.1	274