Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Next: vs Kentucky Wesleyan · Thu 5 Nov, 7:30 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament19%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.4
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 21-13
Net rating−0.6Rank 133 of 365 · offence 154, defence 130
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 21-13 (15 to 27 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 11-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 26%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 18%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.4
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field19%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Morehead Staterank 302 | Home | 82% | 74-63 | W 83-58 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov7:30 PM ET | vs Kentucky Wesleyannot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Sun 8 Nov3 PM ET | at Tennessee Techrank 280 | Away | 65% | 80-75 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7:30 PM ET | vs Campbellsvillenot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Sun 8 Nov: at Tennessee TechA win: 19% · a loss: 18%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armelo BooneG | 1 | 29.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | +1.1 | +1.6 |
| Sharron YoungG · transfer from Akron | 1 | 23.0 | 13.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 | +1.3 |
| LJ HackmanG | 1 | 22.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +0.5 | +1.0 |
| EJ WalkerF · transfer from South Carolina | 1 | 19.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Teagan MooreG | 1 | 19.0 | 17.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +3.5 | +1.9 |
| Trevion LaBeauxG | 1 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Moussa KonareF | 1 | 18.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Gabe WeisF | 1 | 17.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Emondrek Erkins-FordF · transfer from Jax State | 1 | 14.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | +0.3 | +0.6 |
| Noah NorgaardG · transfer from UNC Greensboro | 1 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −3.7 | −0.3 |
| Joseph AdebayoF | 1 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.1 |
| Lawson RiceG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.2 | +0.1 |
| Gavin MurphyG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.5%rank 289 | 49.9%rank 107 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 17.4%rank 19 | 18.2%rank 258 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.3%rank 239 | 30.8%rank 81 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 23.4%rank 313 | 24.2%rank 84 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +10.0 points a game (they shot 21.9%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.7 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −2.7
- Last season's net rating
- +1.3
- Last season's minutes returning
- 38%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.4
- Change since preseason
- +2.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 104.0 (rank 154)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 104.7 (rank 130)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.4 (rank 62)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −13.9 (rank 236)
Conference USA by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Kentucky | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.6 | 104.0 | 104.7 | 133 |
| 2 | Liberty | 0-1 | 0-0 | −1.7 | 104.3 | 105.9 | 143 |
| 3 | Sam Houston | 0-1 | 0-0 | −1.9 | 103.7 | 105.6 | 147 |
| 4 | Kennesaw State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.8 | 103.5 | 106.3 | 153 |
| 5 | Middle Tennessee | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.8 | 102.8 | 106.6 | 167 |
| 6 | New Mexico State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.5 | 102.0 | 106.5 | 180 |
| 7 | Missouri State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.5 | 102.0 | 107.5 | 192 |
| 8 | Florida International | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.7 | 100.5 | 107.2 | 213 |
| 9 | Jacksonville State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.7 | 100.2 | 107.9 | 227 |
| 10 | Delaware | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.1 | 100.0 | 111.1 | 273 |