Delaware Blue Hens

Men's · Conference USA · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Wisconsin · Fri 6 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Delaware2%98%Wisconsin

Projected 62-88 · Game page

Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.7

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 13-21

Net rating−11.1Rank 273 of 365 · offence 250, defence 295

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 13-21 (8 to 19 wins)
Projected conference record: 6-12
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 2%
Average seed if in the field: 14.7
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field2%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Notre Dame (MD)not Division I	Home	—	—	W 105-44
Fri 6 Nov7:30 PM ET	at Wisconsinrank 41	Away	2%	62-88	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs James Madisonrank 265	Home	62%	75-71	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 1% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at WisconsinA win: 1% · a loss: 1%−1 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs James MadisonA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
DeShawn Harris-SmithG · transfer from Georgetown	1	25.0	10.0	7.0	11.0	−0.5	+0.7
Chuck Bailey IIIG · transfer from Nevada	1	20.0	22.0	5.0	4.0	+0.2	+0.8
Nick PetronioG	1	19.0	14.0	2.0	3.0	−1.8	+0.1
Kachi NzehF · transfer from Little Rock	1	16.0	6.0	4.0	1.0	−1.9	0.0
Steven SolanoC · transfer from Saint Joseph's	1	16.0	11.0	10.0	0.0	−1.6	+0.1
Mason EllisonG	1	16.0	7.0	3.0	0.0	−4.9	−0.8
Jafet ValenciaG	1	14.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−1.7	+0.1
Devin DinkinsG · transfer from Manhattan	1	13.0	0.0	1.0	2.0	−3.8	−0.4
Jayden TaylorF	1	13.0	10.0	2.0	1.0	−3.3	−0.3
Eugene AlvinF · transfer from Morgan St	1	13.0	4.0	2.0	2.0	−3.4	−0.3
Jameel BrownG	1	12.0	5.0	0.0	2.0	−3.0	−0.2
Alex KazaneckiG	1	12.0	14.0	6.0	1.0	−3.9	−0.4
Favour EgbunaF	1	9.0	2.0	4.0	0.0	−1.6	+0.1
Brandon BaffoneG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−4.0	0.0
Alex McFaddenG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−3.5	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 153	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.6%rank 155	18.6%rank 133	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 127	31.7%rank 162	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.2%rank 133	25.2%rank 152	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −11.1
Last season's net rating: −11.3
Last season's minutes returning: 26%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −5.8
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 100.0 (rank 250)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 111.1 (rank 295)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 69.7 (rank 345)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Conference USA by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Western Kentucky	1-0	0-0	−0.6	104.0	104.7	133
2	Liberty	0-1	0-0	−1.7	104.3	105.9	143
3	Sam Houston	0-1	0-0	−1.9	103.7	105.6	147
4	Kennesaw State	1-0	0-0	−2.8	103.5	106.3	153
5	Middle Tennessee	1-0	0-0	−3.8	102.8	106.6	167
6	New Mexico State	1-0	0-0	−4.5	102.0	106.5	180
7	Missouri State	1-0	0-0	−5.5	102.0	107.5	192
8	Florida International	1-0	0-0	−6.7	100.5	107.2	213
9	Jacksonville State	1-0	0-0	−7.7	100.2	107.9	227
10	Delaware	1-0	0-0	−11.1	100.0	111.1	273