Liberty Flames
Next: vs Boyce · Sat 7 Nov, 2 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament15%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-14
Net rating−1.7Rank 143 of 365 · offence 150, defence 155
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 20-14 (15 to 26 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 19%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 15%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field15%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 1 Nov | vs High Pointrank 85 | Neutral | 28% | 72-79 | L 57-72 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET | vs Boycenot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- No games this week
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.4%rank 295 | 51.2%rank 289 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.2%rank 117 | 18.5%rank 135 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.6%rank 306 | 31.6%rank 147 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 23.9%rank 296 | 23.7%rank 58 | 25.3% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.3 expected (−0.3)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +1.4 points a game (they shot 30.0%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.7 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −0.2
- Last season's net rating
- +4.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 10%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.5
- Change since preseason
- −1.5
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 104.3 (rank 150)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 106.0 (rank 155)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 69.5 (rank 355)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +8.0 (rank 82)
Conference USA by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Kentucky | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.6 | 104.1 | 104.7 | 133 |
| 2 | Liberty | 0-1 | 0-0 | −1.7 | 104.3 | 106.0 | 143 |
| 3 | Sam Houston | 0-1 | 0-0 | −1.9 | 103.7 | 105.7 | 147 |
| 4 | Kennesaw State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.8 | 103.5 | 106.3 | 153 |
| 5 | Middle Tennessee | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.8 | 102.9 | 106.7 | 166 |
| 6 | New Mexico State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.5 | 102.1 | 106.6 | 180 |
| 7 | Missouri State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.5 | 102.1 | 107.6 | 192 |
| 8 | Florida International | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.7 | 100.5 | 107.3 | 214 |
| 9 | Jacksonville State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.7 | 100.3 | 108.0 | 228 |
| 10 | Delaware | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.1 | 100.1 | 111.2 | 273 |