New Mexico State Aggies
Makes the tournament9%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-16
Net rating−4.5Rank 180 of 365 · offence 195, defence 168
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-16 (10 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 9-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 10%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 9%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field9%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | vs Western New Mexiconot Division I | Home | — | — | W 73-66 | |
| Sat 7 Nov5 PM ET | at Gonzagarank 27 | Away | 2% | 62-87 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov9 PM ET | at UTEPrank 267 | Away | 52% | 74-73 | — |
Rooting guide
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jae'Coby OsborneF | 1 | 33.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | +1.0 |
| DJ DudleyG · transfer from Louisiana Tech | 1 | 33.0 | 22.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | −0.4 | +1.0 |
| Gabe PickensG | 1 | 28.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Mark LavrenovF · transfer from Sacramento St | 1 | 21.0 | 17.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.4 |
| Jermaine WashingtonG · transfer from San José St | 1 | 19.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | −1.1 | +0.3 |
| Phoenix WoodsonF | 1 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −0.9 | +0.3 |
| KK RobinsonG | 1 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −0.9 | +0.3 |
| Leopold LevillainF · transfer from Long Beach St | 1 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.2 |
| Caden DeffebaughG | 1 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.2 |
| Adrame DiongueC | 1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.8 | +0.2 |
| Gabe WarrenG · transfer from Holy Cross | 1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.4%rank 135 | 50.4%rank 156 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.5%rank 155 | 18.5%rank 133 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.8%rank 128 | 31.8%rank 162 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.1%rank 133 | 25.1%rank 154 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −4.5
- Last season's net rating
- −0.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 21%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −4.0
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 102.0 (rank 195)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 106.6 (rank 168)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.1 (rank 210)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Conference USA by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Kentucky | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.7 | 104.0 | 104.7 | 133 |
| 2 | Liberty | 0-1 | 0-0 | −1.7 | 104.3 | 106.0 | 143 |
| 3 | Sam Houston | 0-1 | 0-0 | −1.9 | 103.7 | 105.6 | 147 |
| 4 | Kennesaw State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.8 | 103.5 | 106.3 | 153 |
| 5 | Middle Tennessee | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.8 | 102.8 | 106.6 | 166 |
| 6 | New Mexico State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.5 | 102.0 | 106.6 | 180 |
| 7 | Missouri State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.5 | 102.0 | 107.5 | 192 |
| 8 | Florida International | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.7 | 100.5 | 107.2 | 213 |
| 9 | Jacksonville State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.7 | 100.3 | 107.9 | 227 |
| 10 | Delaware | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.1 | 100.0 | 111.1 | 274 |