Missouri State Bears

Men's · Conference USA · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Truman State · Fri 6 Nov, 8 PM ET

Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.

Makes the tournament8%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.7

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-15

Net rating−5.5Rank 192 of 365 · offence 195, defence 189

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 17-15 (11 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 8%
Wins the conference tournament: 8%
Average seed if in the field: 13.7
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field8%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Tue 3 Nov	vs Lincoln (MO)not Division I	Home	—	—	W 88-60
Fri 6 Nov8 PM ET	vs Truman Statenot Division I	Home	—	—	—
Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET	vs Newmannot Division I	Home	—	—	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 8% · the next 7 days

No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Trey Williams Jr.G	1	27.0	11.0	4.0	10.0	−0.8	+0.6
Melakih CunninghamG	1	27.0	19.0	5.0	3.0	−1.1	+0.4
Jordan BlairG	1	27.0	5.0	7.0	1.0	−1.3	+0.3
Matt GrayF	1	25.0	0.0	5.0	2.0	−1.3	+0.3
Andrej AcimovicC	1	24.0	24.0	4.0	1.0	−1.1	+0.4
Christian ThompsonF	1	19.0	2.0	7.0	2.0	−1.1	+0.3
Dylan RoweG	1	16.0	8.0	1.0	3.0	−1.0	+0.3
Ngundeng RueyF	1	14.0	10.0	3.0	1.0	−0.9	+0.3
Cameron BooneF	1	8.0	4.0	2.0	0.0	−1.8	0.0
Dimitar ZetovF	1	6.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	−0.8	+0.1
Leano RolleF	1	4.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	−0.7	+0.1
Kuol KuolF	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.7	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 153	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.6%rank 155	18.6%rank 133	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 127	31.7%rank 162	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.2%rank 133	25.2%rank 152	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −5.5
Last season's net rating: −3.0
Last season's minutes returning: 22%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 102.0 (rank 195)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 107.5 (rank 189)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.6 (rank 279)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Conference USA by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Western Kentucky	1-0	0-0	−0.6	104.0	104.7	133
2	Liberty	0-1	0-0	−1.7	104.3	105.9	143
3	Sam Houston	0-1	0-0	−1.9	103.7	105.6	147
4	Kennesaw State	1-0	0-0	−2.8	103.5	106.3	153
5	Middle Tennessee	1-0	0-0	−3.8	102.8	106.6	167
6	New Mexico State	1-0	0-0	−4.5	102.0	106.5	180
7	Missouri State	1-0	0-0	−5.5	102.0	107.5	192
8	Florida International	1-0	0-0	−6.7	100.5	107.2	213
9	Jacksonville State	1-0	0-0	−7.7	100.2	107.9	227
10	Delaware	1-0	0-0	−11.1	100.0	111.1	273