Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Men's · Conference USA · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Kansas · Fri 6 Nov, 9 PM ET

MTSU1%99%Kansas

Projected 58-90 · Game page

Makes the tournament11%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.4

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-15

Net rating−3.8Rank 166 of 365 · offence 180, defence 169

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 17-15 (12 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 13%
Wins the conference tournament: 11%
Average seed if in the field: 13.4
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field11%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Fisknot Division I	Home	—	—	W 117-73
Fri 6 Nov9 PM ET	at Kansasrank 3	Away	1%	58-90	—
Tue 10 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Evansvillerank 238	Home	74%	77-69	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 11% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at KansasA win: 9% · a loss: 11%−2 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs EvansvilleA win: 11% · a loss: 11%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jahvin CarterG	1	31.0	16.0	4.0	7.0	+0.4	+1.4
Quintero BarnettG	1	27.0	24.0	2.0	4.0	−1.4	+0.3
Marcus Whitlock Jr.G	1	25.0	17.0	3.0	3.0	−0.6	+0.7
Eli RiceG · transfer from Penn State	1	24.0	18.0	3.0	2.0	−0.7	+0.6
Landyn ColyerG	1	18.0	8.0	8.0	2.0	−1.2	+0.3
Kaleb SilerC	1	17.0	7.0	4.0	2.0	−1.2	+0.2
Jarred HallF	1	13.0	8.0	5.0	1.0	−1.7	+0.1
Ofri NavehF · transfer from Oral Roberts	1	13.0	5.0	3.0	1.0	−0.2	+0.4
Jax HowardG	1	13.0	3.0	3.0	1.0	−1.1	+0.2
Luka JovanovicC	1	10.0	3.0	3.0	0.0	−0.3	+0.3
Aiden BoldenF	1	4.0	6.0	2.0	2.0	−0.9	+0.1
Braylin DavisG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.9	+0.1
Garrison WhiteG	1	2.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	−0.8	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 155	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 156	18.5%rank 135	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.8%rank 128	31.8%rank 161	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.3%rank 133	25.3%rank 155	25.3%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −3.7
Last season's net rating: +0.6
Last season's minutes returning: 25%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −4.7
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 102.9 (rank 180)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 106.7 (rank 169)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.7 (rank 255)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Conference USA by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Western Kentucky	1-0	0-0	−0.6	104.1	104.7	133
2	Liberty	0-1	0-0	−1.7	104.3	106.0	143
3	Sam Houston	0-1	0-0	−1.9	103.7	105.7	147
4	Kennesaw State	1-0	0-0	−2.8	103.5	106.3	153
5	Middle Tennessee	1-0	0-0	−3.8	102.9	106.7	166
6	New Mexico State	1-0	0-0	−4.5	102.1	106.6	180
7	Missouri State	1-0	0-0	−5.5	102.1	107.6	192
8	Florida International	1-0	0-0	−6.7	100.5	107.3	214
9	Jacksonville State	1-0	0-0	−7.7	100.3	108.0	228
10	Delaware	1-0	0-0	−11.1	100.1	111.2	273