Evansville Purple Aces

Men's · Missouri Valley Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs S Indiana · Sat 7 Nov, 8 PM ET

S Indiana18%82%Evansville

Projected 76-65 · Game page

Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-21

Net rating−8.5Rank 238 of 365 · offence 255, defence 206

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 12-21 (7 to 17 wins)
Projected conference record: 5-15
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs IU Kokomonot Division I	Home	—	—	W 80-70
Sat 7 Nov8 PM ET	vs Southern Indianarank 332	Home	82%	76-65	—
Tue 10 Nov7:30 PM ET	at Middle Tennesseerank 167	Away	26%	69-77	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs Southern IndianaA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Tue 10 Nov: at Middle TennesseeA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Bryce QuinetG	1	33.0	10.0	3.0	11.0	−2.8	−0.4
AJ CaseyF	1	31.0	19.0	8.0	3.0	+0.1	+1.2
Makuei RiekG	1	27.0	10.0	3.0	0.0	−1.8	+0.1
Max LangenfeldG · transfer from FAU	1	26.0	6.0	2.0	2.0	−1.1	+0.5
James Dyson-MerweF	1	22.0	8.0	5.0	1.0	−3.8	−0.7
Caden SymonsG	1	22.0	8.0	2.0	0.0	−1.7	+0.1
Aaron GutmanG	1	12.0	5.0	0.0	1.0	−1.5	+0.1
JR KemmG	1	10.0	5.0	0.0	0.0	−1.4	+0.1
Gustav WintherF · transfer from N Illinois	1	7.0	7.0	1.0	0.0	−1.8	0.0
Luke EllspermannG	1	4.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−1.2	+0.1
Yannick PinasF	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.2	0.0
Jake GenschawF	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.2	0.0
Bryce RennF	1	2.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	−1.2	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 153	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.6%rank 155	18.6%rank 133	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 127	31.7%rank 162	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.2%rank 133	25.2%rank 152	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −8.5
Last season's net rating: −13.1
Last season's minutes returning: 32%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.8
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 99.6 (rank 255)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 108.0 (rank 206)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.2 (rank 208)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Missouri Valley Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Murray State	1-0	0-0	+6.3	107.4	101.0	98
2	UIC	1-0	0-0	+5.2	107.4	102.3	101
3	Northern Iowa	1-0	0-0	+3.8	105.9	102.1	110
4	Belmont	1-0	0-0	+3.6	106.0	102.3	111
5	Drake	1-0	0-0	+3.1	107.1	104.0	114
6	Illinois State	0-1	0-0	+1.1	106.3	105.2	123
7	Valparaiso	1-0	0-0	+0.1	104.4	104.3	125
8	Bradley	1-0	0-0	−0.5	104.6	105.1	129
9	Southern Illinois	1-0	0-0	−1.3	102.9	104.2	140
10	Indiana State	0-1	0-0	−7.3	101.8	109.1	222
11	Evansville	1-0	0-0	−8.5	99.6	108.0	238