Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Men's · Ohio Valley Conference · 1-1, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Evansville · Sat 7 Nov, 8 PM ET

S Indiana19%81%Evansville

Projected 65-76 · Game page

Makes the tournament4%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-19

Net rating−17.3Rank 332 of 365 · offence 357, defence 251

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 14-19 (9 to 19 wins)
Projected conference record: 6-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 3%
Wins the conference tournament: 4%
Average seed if in the field: 15.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field4%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Belmontrank 112	Away	3%	58-80	L 54-72	Right
Wed 4 Nov	vs Saint Mary of the Woodsnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 112-42
Sat 7 Nov8 PM ET	at Evansvillerank 236	Away	19%	65-76	—
Wed 11 Nov6:30 PM ET	at IU Indianapolisrank 297	Away	28%	71-79	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 4% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: at EvansvilleA win: 4% · a loss: 4%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at IU IndianapolisA win: 5% · a loss: 4%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kaden BrownG	2	18.0	9.0	3.5	0.0	−4.6	−0.8
Afan TrnkaG · transfer from UT Martin	2	18.0	2.5	1.5	2.0	−3.0	−0.3
Josiah DunhamG	2	17.5	9.5	2.5	1.0	−5.5	−1.1
Donovan HunterF · transfer from Bellarmine	2	15.5	3.0	4.0	1.0	−4.9	−0.8
LA HayesG · transfer from UTEP	2	15.0	10.5	2.5	1.0	−2.1	0.0
Ari GoochG · transfer from UAB	2	15.0	7.0	3.0	1.5	−1.8	+0.1
Yesan WarrenG	2	14.5	4.5	4.5	2.0	−2.6	−0.1
Johann PautschF	2	14.5	6.5	4.5	2.0	−2.6	−0.1
Yuto Yamanouchi-WilliamsF · transfer from Oral Roberts	2	13.0	3.5	8.0	0.5	−2.8	−0.2
Maksym HryshchukF	2	13.0	7.0	4.0	1.0	−2.6	−0.1
Fredy-Salam SyllaG · transfer from Arkansas St	2	12.0	3.0	2.0	0.5	−2.6	−0.1
Alem FejzicG	2	11.5	6.5	0.5	0.5	−6.3	−0.9
Didier MalengF · transfer from Denver	2	11.5	7.5	1.5	0.0	−4.1	−0.4
Josh SmithG	1	21.0	6.0	1.0	2.0	−2.4	−0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	48.5%rank 324	50.6%rank 256	50.1%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.4%rank 319	20.2%rank 14	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	33.1%rank 53	29.6%rank 19	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.5%rank 272	24.7%rank 108	25.6%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +1.1 points a game (they shot 30.0%, league 31.9%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −18.8
Last season's net rating: −18.4
Last season's minutes returning: 15%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.5
Change since preseason: +1.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 92.0 (rank 357)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 109.3 (rank 251)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.2 (rank 181)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +3.7 (rank 97)

Ohio Valley Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Southeast Missouri State	2-0	0-0	−7.8	99.5	107.3	229
2	UT Martin	0-1	0-0	−10.4	99.4	109.8	256
3	SIU Edwardsville	2-0	0-0	−10.8	97.2	108.0	269
4	Tennessee State	0-1	0-0	−13.0	96.2	109.2	291
5	Morehead State	1-1	0-0	−14.0	98.4	112.4	302
6	Lindenwood	1-1	0-0	−15.9	94.9	110.9	323
7	Eastern Illinois	0-1	0-0	−16.1	94.7	110.8	326
8	Southern Indiana	1-1	0-0	−17.3	92.0	109.3	332
9	Western Illinois	0-1	0-0	−22.2	92.8	114.9	355