Belmont Bruins
Makes the tournament16%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.7
Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 22-12
Net rating+3.7Rank 112 of 365 · offence 118, defence 103
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 22-12 (16 to 28 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 12-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 16%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 13%
- Average seed if in the field
- 11.7
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field16%
- Round of 322%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four<1%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Southern Indianarank 332 | Home | 97% | 80-58 | W 72-54 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov | vs Centrenot Division I | Home | — | — | W 75-45 | |
| Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET | at Lipscombrank 162 | Away | 56% | 76-74 | — |
Rooting guide
- Tue 10 Nov: at LipscombA win: 16% · a loss: 15%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack SmileyG | 2 | 31.0 | 20.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | +2.1 | +2.3 |
| Eoin DillonF | 2 | 24.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 0.5 | +2.3 | +1.9 |
| Vincent NeugebauerC · transfer from FAU | 2 | 24.0 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.0 | −0.1 | +0.8 |
| Isaiah WestG | 2 | 21.5 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +0.4 | +1.0 |
| Jabez JenkinsG | 2 | 20.0 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 | +2.1 | +1.5 |
| Ethan SageG | 2 | 19.5 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.4 |
| Aleksa RisticG · transfer from Indiana | 2 | 18.0 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | +0.8 | +0.9 |
| Matthew ZobristG · transfer from Bradley | 2 | 17.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | −1.1 | +0.3 |
| Kayden FishF · transfer from Ball State | 1 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −0.9 | +0.3 |
| Charlie GersmehlF | 1 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.3 | +0.4 |
| Cooper HaynesG | 2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.1 | +0.3 |
| Cooper KnowlesF | 1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | +0.2 |
| Graydon LemkeF | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 | +0.2 |
| Eli BrownG | 1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.6%rank 111 | 48.5%rank 42 | 50.1% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 20.2%rank 349 | 19.4%rank 45 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 29.6%rank 341 | 33.1%rank 315 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 24.7%rank 260 | 24.5%rank 96 | 25.6% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +8.1 points a game (they shot 19.1%, league 31.9%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +3.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +5.3
- Last season's net rating
- +12.4
- Last season's minutes returning
- 38%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.7
- Change since preseason
- −1.5
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 105.9 (rank 118)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 102.2 (rank 103)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.0 (rank 83)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −17.3 (rank 275)
Missouri Valley Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murray State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +6.3 | 107.2 | 100.9 | 96 |
| 2 | UIC | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.2 | 107.3 | 102.2 | 102 |
| 3 | Northern Iowa | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.8 | 105.8 | 102.0 | 111 |
| 4 | Belmont | 2-0 | 0-0 | +3.7 | 105.9 | 102.2 | 112 |
| 5 | Drake | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.1 | 107.0 | 103.9 | 115 |
| 6 | Illinois State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.0 | 106.2 | 105.1 | 123 |
| 7 | Valparaiso | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.2 | 104.3 | 104.1 | 126 |
| 8 | Bradley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.5 | 104.5 | 105.0 | 129 |
| 9 | Southern Illinois | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.3 | 102.8 | 104.1 | 139 |
| 10 | Indiana State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.3 | 101.6 | 108.9 | 221 |
| 11 | Evansville | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.5 | 99.5 | 107.9 | 236 |