Southern Illinois Salukis

Men's · Missouri Valley Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Kansas City · Fri 6 Nov, 8:30 PM ET

S Illinois70%30%Kansas City

Projected 76-70 · Game page

Makes the tournament5%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.1

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-16

Net rating−1.3Rank 139 of 365 · offence 176, defence 122

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-16 (10 to 22 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-11
Wins or shares the conference title: 4%
Wins the conference tournament: 4%
Average seed if in the field: 12.1
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field5%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Maryville (MO)not Division I	Home	—	—	W 82-40
Fri 6 Nov8:30 PM ET	at Kansas Cityrank 305	Away	70%	76-70	—
Thu 12 Nov8 PM ET	vs Richmondrank 134	Home	62%	78-74	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 5% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at Kansas CityA win: 5% · a loss: 5%0 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs RichmondA win: 5% · a loss: 5%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jalen HaynesG	1	25.0	20.0	2.0	7.0	+1.6	+1.7
Max PikaarF	1	24.0	5.0	10.0	1.0	+0.2	+1.0
Luke WalshG	1	24.0	14.0	3.0	2.0	−0.9	+0.5
Jeremiah JacksonG	1	23.0	10.0	3.0	5.0	−0.9	+0.5
Luke SuskoG	1	21.0	13.0	6.0	1.0	−0.9	+0.4
Jaxson FugateG	1	19.0	7.0	4.0	2.0	−0.8	+0.4
Caden HawkinsG	1	18.0	4.0	4.0	4.0	−0.5	+0.5
Jaheem WebberC	1	16.0	6.0	6.0	0.0	+0.6	+0.8
Pietro RanieriF	1	16.0	0.0	5.0	2.0	−0.8	+0.4
Daniel PauliukonisF	1	7.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	−0.5	+0.2
Ty LaurF	1	7.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.5	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.1%rank 148	50.1%rank 155	50.1%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 158	18.5%rank 136	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 132	31.7%rank 172	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.6%rank 135	25.6%rank 161	25.6%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −1.3
Last season's net rating: +4.7
Last season's minutes returning: 18%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 102.8 (rank 176)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 104.1 (rank 122)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.8 (rank 105)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Missouri Valley Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Murray State	1-0	0-0	+6.3	107.2	100.9	96
2	UIC	1-0	0-0	+5.2	107.3	102.2	102
3	Northern Iowa	1-0	0-0	+3.8	105.8	102.0	111
4	Belmont	2-0	0-0	+3.7	105.9	102.2	112
5	Drake	1-0	0-0	+3.1	107.0	103.9	115
6	Illinois State	0-1	0-0	+1.0	106.2	105.1	123
7	Valparaiso	1-0	0-0	+0.2	104.3	104.1	126
8	Bradley	1-0	0-0	−0.5	104.5	105.0	129
9	Southern Illinois	1-0	0-0	−1.3	102.8	104.1	139
10	Indiana State	0-1	0-0	−7.3	101.6	108.9	221
11	Evansville	1-0	0-0	−8.5	99.5	107.9	236