UIC Flames
Next: vs Robert Morris · Fri 6 Nov, 8 PM ETProjected 80-66 · Game page
Makes the tournament21%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 23-11
Net rating+5.2Rank 101 of 365 · offence 100, defence 102
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 23-11 (17 to 29 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 13-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 23%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 17%
- Average seed if in the field
- 11.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field21%
- Round of 324%
- Sweet 161%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four<1%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs St. Francis (IL)not Division I | Home | — | — | W 96-47 | |
| Fri 6 Nov8 PM ET | vs Robert Morrisrank 204 | Home | 86% | 80-66 | — | |
| Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET | vs UNC Greensbororank 279 | Home | 92% | 83-66 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: vs Robert MorrisA win: 22% · a loss: 20%+2 pts
- Mon 9 Nov: vs UNC GreensboroA win: 22% · a loss: 20%+2 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mekhi LoweryG | 1 | 26.0 | 20.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | +1.8 | +1.8 |
| Gabe CuppsG · transfer from Ohio State | 1 | 24.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | +0.7 | +1.2 |
| Benny GealerG · transfer from Stanford | 1 | 23.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +2.8 | +2.0 |
| Rashund Washington Jr.G | 1 | 23.0 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | +2.0 | +1.7 |
| Jayce NathanielF | 1 | 22.0 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 | +1.2 |
| Ahmad Henderson IIG | 1 | 21.0 | 13.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | +1.8 | +1.4 |
| Elijah GarrettG | 1 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.1 | +0.3 |
| Lucas ScrogginsF · transfer from Saint Peter's | 1 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 | +0.9 |
| Dikembe ShawF | 1 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.3 |
| Nano BarrantesF | 1 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.2 |
| Mario Wooden Jr.G | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −0.7 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.4%rank 135 | 50.4%rank 153 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.6%rank 155 | 18.6%rank 133 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.7%rank 127 | 31.7%rank 162 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.2%rank 133 | 25.2%rank 152 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +5.2
- Last season's net rating
- +5.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 59%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +2.5
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 107.4 (rank 100)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 102.3 (rank 102)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.0 (rank 230)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Missouri Valley Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murray State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +6.3 | 107.4 | 101.0 | 98 |
| 2 | UIC | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.2 | 107.4 | 102.3 | 101 |
| 3 | Northern Iowa | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.8 | 105.9 | 102.1 | 110 |
| 4 | Belmont | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.6 | 106.0 | 102.3 | 111 |
| 5 | Drake | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.1 | 107.1 | 104.0 | 114 |
| 6 | Illinois State | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.1 | 106.3 | 105.2 | 123 |
| 7 | Valparaiso | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.1 | 104.4 | 104.3 | 125 |
| 8 | Bradley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.5 | 104.6 | 105.1 | 129 |
| 9 | Southern Illinois | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.3 | 102.9 | 104.2 | 140 |
| 10 | Indiana State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.3 | 101.8 | 109.1 | 222 |
| 11 | Evansville | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.5 | 99.6 | 108.0 | 238 |