Robert Morris Colonials
Makes the tournament8%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.3
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-17
Net rating−6.3Rank 203 of 365 · offence 202, defence 207
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 17-17 (11 to 23 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 11-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 9%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 8%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.3
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field8%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
Rooting guide
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KJ Garris Jr.G · transfer from Fullerton | 1 | 30.0 | 16.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | −0.2 | +1.0 |
| Darius LivingstonG | 1 | 30.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Ace ValentineG · transfer from UMBC | 1 | 28.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −0.5 | +0.8 |
| Samuel ObenjoF | 1 | 25.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −2.9 | −0.4 |
| Ta'Zir SmithG | 1 | 22.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
| Eddie Cooke IIIG | 1 | 22.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Jalik DunkleyF · transfer from Nicholls | 1 | 18.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +0.1 | +0.7 |
| KC UgwuakaziF · transfer from Merrimack | 1 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +0.2 | +0.6 |
| Will OccomyG | 1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Michael ParlowG | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 48.1%rank 350 | 49.9%rank 111 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.7%rank 340 | 17.9%rank 302 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 32.0%rank 110 | 34.4%rank 352 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 28.0%rank 23 | 23.8%rank 64 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +1.2 points a game (they shot 30.8%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −0.7
- Last season's net rating
- +0.9
- Last season's minutes returning
- 24%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.4
- Change since preseason
- −5.6
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 101.8 (rank 202)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 108.1 (rank 207)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.1 (rank 317)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +14.0 (rank 55)
Horizon League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wright State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.4 | 108.1 | 107.7 | 124 |
| 2 | Oakland | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 105.2 | 108.2 | 157 |
| 3 | Northern Kentucky | 2-0 | 0-0 | −4.3 | 106.3 | 110.6 | 176 |
| 4 | Youngstown State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.2 | 100.6 | 106.8 | 200 |
| 5 | Robert Morris | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.3 | 101.8 | 108.1 | 203 |
| 6 | Green Bay | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.6 | 103.3 | 109.9 | 211 |
| 7 | Milwaukee | 0-2 | 0-0 | −7.1 | 100.7 | 107.9 | 218 |
| 8 | Purdue Fort Wayne | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.8 | 100.5 | 108.3 | 230 |
| 9 | Detroit Mercy | 0-0 | 0-0 | −8.0 | 100.9 | 109.0 | 233 |
| 10 | IU Indianapolis | 1-0 | 0-0 | −13.5 | 99.5 | 113.0 | 297 |
| 11 | Cleveland State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −17.2 | 97.9 | 115.1 | 332 |
| 12 | Northern Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −20.2 | 97.0 | 117.2 | 351 |