Northern Kentucky Norse
Makes the tournament11%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.7
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 21-13
Net rating−4.3Rank 176 of 365 · offence 112, defence 284
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 21-13 (16 to 27 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 12-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 15%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 11%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.7
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field11%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs UTEPrank 267 | Neutral | 58% | 69-66 | W 84-76 | Right |
| Wed 4 Nov | at South Dakotarank 283 | Away | 57% | 80-77 | W 102-94 | Right |
| Fri 6 Nov8 PM ET | at Texas A&Mrank 36 | Away | 3% | 69-91 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET | at Saint Louisrank 57 | Away | 5% | 73-92 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at Texas A&MA win: 12% · a loss: 11%+1 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at Saint LouisA win: 13% · a loss: 11%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric AckerG · transfer from La Salle | 2 | 37.0 | 19.0 | 1.0 | 8.5 | −1.4 | +0.5 |
| Noah PagottoF · transfer from East Texas A&M | 2 | 36.5 | 24.5 | 8.0 | 1.5 | −0.6 | +1.0 |
| Willie FosterG | 2 | 32.0 | 23.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | −1.1 | +0.6 |
| B.J. Davis-RayG · transfer from SMU | 2 | 28.0 | 12.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | −0.1 | +1.0 |
| Gabrielius JokubauskasG | 2 | 20.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.4 |
| Donovan RakotonanaharyF | 2 | 18.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | −0.8 | +0.4 |
| Will ShorttF · transfer from Niagara | 2 | 16.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.3 |
| Ryan TolliverF | 2 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Juanma RuizF | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +0.1 |
| JJ ApathjangG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 54.1%rank 3 | 50.0%rank 146 | 50.1% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.1%rank 111 | 17.6%rank 318 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.7%rank 131 | 31.1%rank 109 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 32.6%rank 2 | 24.4%rank 83 | 25.6% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 2.0 won, 1.1 expected (+0.9)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +0.8 points a game (they shot 30.9%, league 31.9%)
- Opponents' free throws
- 0.0 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −6.0
- Last season's net rating
- −0.9
- Last season's minutes returning
- 26%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −3.2
- Change since preseason
- +1.7
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 106.1 (rank 112)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 110.5 (rank 284)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.9 (rank 22)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −11.7 (rank 224)
Horizon League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wright State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.5 | 108.0 | 107.5 | 125 |
| 2 | Oakland | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.1 | 105.0 | 108.1 | 159 |
| 3 | Northern Kentucky | 2-0 | 0-0 | −4.3 | 106.1 | 110.5 | 176 |
| 4 | Green Bay | 1-1 | 0-0 | −4.5 | 104.2 | 108.7 | 180 |
| 5 | Youngstown State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.3 | 100.4 | 106.7 | 204 |
| 6 | Robert Morris | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.4 | 101.6 | 108.0 | 207 |
| 7 | Milwaukee | 0-2 | 0-0 | −7.3 | 100.5 | 107.8 | 222 |
| 8 | Purdue Fort Wayne | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.0 | 100.3 | 108.2 | 230 |
| 9 | Detroit Mercy | 0-0 | 0-0 | −8.0 | 100.8 | 108.8 | 231 |
| 10 | IU Indianapolis | 1-0 | 0-0 | −13.5 | 99.4 | 112.9 | 297 |
| 11 | Cleveland State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −17.3 | 97.7 | 115.0 | 332 |
| 12 | Northern Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −20.2 | 96.8 | 117.1 | 351 |