South Dakota Coyotes
Makes the tournament4%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.1
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-18
Net rating−12.7Rank 288 of 365 · offence 209, defence 345
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 15-18 (10 to 20 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 6-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 3%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 4%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.1
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field4%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Mount Martynot Division I | Home | — | — | W 95-57 | |
| Wed 4 Nov | vs Northern Kentuckyrank 176 | Home | 43% | 78-80 | L 94-102 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET | vs Cal State Fullertonrank 206 | Home | 48% | 83-83 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET | vs Houston Christianrank 304 | Home | 67% | 79-74 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs Cal State FullertonA win: 4% · a loss: 4%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: vs Houston ChristianA win: 4% · a loss: 4%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince BuzelisG | 2 | 25.5 | 17.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | −3.5 | −0.7 |
| Cade KeldermanG · transfer from Iowa State | 2 | 25.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | +1.0 | +1.4 |
| Jahni SummersG · transfer from Sacramento St | 2 | 24.5 | 20.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 | −3.4 | −0.6 |
| Josiah DotzlerG | 2 | 23.0 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | −2.8 | −0.3 |
| Stef van BusselC · transfer from Duquesne | 2 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 0.5 | −2.8 | −0.2 |
| Kajus KublickasG · transfer from Pacific | 2 | 20.0 | 14.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Ethan KizerF | 2 | 14.5 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | −4.4 | −0.6 |
| Josh Townley-ThomasF · transfer from Creighton | 2 | 11.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.3 | +0.2 |
| Jake BrackF | 2 | 11.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | −4.7 | −0.6 |
| Melo SanchezG · transfer from C Connecticut | 1 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −3.1 | −0.3 |
| Michael NeeG | 1 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Iliam FevryG | 1 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Marvin Richard IIIG | 1 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
| Brandon DomschF | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −1.8 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 51.4%rank 67 | 54.4%rank 364 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.4%rank 327 | 17.9%rank 297 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.3%rank 249 | 32.5%rank 277 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.0%rank 224 | 27.5%rank 331 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.4 expected (−0.4)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −13.4 points a game (they shot 64.3%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −12.6
- Last season's net rating
- −10.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 21%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.1
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 101.6 (rank 209)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 114.2 (rank 345)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.7 (rank 41)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −4.3 (rank 152)
Summit League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Thomas | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.9 | 106.7 | 108.6 | 145 |
| 2 | South Dakota State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.3 | 102.7 | 106.0 | 163 |
| 3 | North Dakota State | 1-1 | 0-0 | −5.8 | 104.3 | 110.0 | 194 |
| 4 | Omaha | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.6 | 100.4 | 109.9 | 254 |
| 5 | South Dakota | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.7 | 101.6 | 114.2 | 288 |
| 6 | North Dakota | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.7 | 98.8 | 111.5 | 289 |
| 7 | Kansas City | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.9 | 95.0 | 109.0 | 303 |
| 8 | Oral Roberts | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.6 | 97.6 | 112.2 | 311 |