South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Men's · Summit League · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Briar Cliff · Fri 6 Nov, 9:30 PM ET

Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.

Makes the tournament27%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 23-11

Net rating−3.4Rank 163 of 365 · offence 184, defence 158

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 23-11 (17 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-4
Wins or shares the conference title: 35%
Wins the conference tournament: 27%
Average seed if in the field: 13.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field27%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	at Kansas Staterank 114	Away	15%	70-83	W 68-66	Wrong
Fri 6 Nov9:30 PM ET	vs Briar Cliffnot Division I	Home	—	—	—
Wed 11 Nov8 PM ET	vs Valparaisorank 126	Home	53%	72-71	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 27% · the next 7 days

Wed 11 Nov: vs ValparaisoA win: 27% · a loss: 27%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kalen GarryG	1	38.0	14.0	8.0	3.0	−0.1	+1.3
Davis KernF	1	37.0	24.0	8.0	0.0	−1.1	+0.6
Joe SaylerG	1	36.0	10.0	2.0	4.0	0.0	+1.3
Jon MekonnenF · transfer from Colorado St	1	31.0	14.0	4.0	0.0	+0.2	+1.2
EJ RyansG · transfer from W Michigan	1	31.0	0.0	2.0	4.0	−2.6	−0.3
Trey BuchananG	1	15.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	−0.5	+0.4
Semaj StampleyG	1	6.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	−0.4	+0.2
Blake EllweinF	1	6.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	−0.5	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.3%rank 63	49.3%rank 81	50.1%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.6%rank 39	18.8%rank 109	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.4%rank 305	30.1%rank 35	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.2%rank 289	25.2%rank 136	25.6%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.1 expected (+0.8)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +2.8 points a game (they shot 28.6%, league 31.9%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 1-0

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −5.1
Last season's net rating: −2.6
Last season's minutes returning: 42%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.6
Change since preseason: +1.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 102.5 (rank 184)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 105.9 (rank 158)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.5 (rank 261)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +3.4 (rank 100)

Summit League by rating

8 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	St. Thomas	1-0	0-0	−2.0	106.4	108.4	145
2	South Dakota State	1-0	0-0	−3.4	102.5	105.9	163
3	North Dakota State	1-1	0-0	−5.9	104.1	109.9	197
4	Omaha	1-0	0-0	−9.6	100.2	109.8	250
5	South Dakota	1-1	0-0	−12.5	101.5	114.0	283
6	North Dakota	0-1	0-0	−12.8	98.6	111.4	288
7	Kansas City	0-1	0-0	−14.1	94.8	108.8	305
8	Oral Roberts	0-1	0-0	−14.7	97.4	112.1	312