Omaha Mavericks

Men's · Summit League · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at BYU · Fri 6 Nov, 9 PM ET

Omaha1%99%BYU

Projected 65-94 · Game page

Makes the tournament9%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-16

Net rating−9.6Rank 254 of 365 · offence 242, defence 269

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-16 (10 to 21 wins)
Projected conference record: 7-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 9%
Wins the conference tournament: 9%
Average seed if in the field: 14.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field9%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Mid America Christiannot Division I	Home	—	—	W 73-65
Fri 6 Nov9 PM ET	at BYUrank 24	Away	1%	65-94	—
Sat 7 Nov4 PM ET	at Utah Staterank 51	Away	3%	65-89	—
Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET	vs York (NE)not Division I	Home	—	—	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 9% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at BYUA win: 10% · a loss: 9%+1 pts
Sat 7 Nov: at Utah StateA win: 5% · a loss: 9%−4 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Cahmai CrosbyG · transfer from North Texas	1	31.0	21.0	4.0	3.0	−2.5	−0.2
Deke ThompsonG · transfer from Texas St	1	27.0	13.0	3.0	4.0	−3.8	−0.8
Grant StubblefieldG	1	26.0	11.0	6.0	1.0	−1.0	+0.5
Isaac OndekaneC	1	25.0	7.0	7.0	1.0	−1.8	+0.1
Jonny Jordan Jr.G	1	25.0	13.0	3.0	2.0	−1.8	+0.1
Dace PleasantF	1	17.0	6.0	7.0	1.0	−1.7	+0.1
Justin BolisF · transfer from Nebraska	1	14.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+1.1	+0.8
Chris DockeryF · transfer from Kansas City	1	11.0	2.0	3.0	1.0	−3.3	−0.2
Heri BukingaC	1	10.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.5	+0.1
Brock SchollF	1	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.7	0.0
Gavin BakerF	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.3	0.0
Brandon OrgilboldG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.2	0.0
Aidan SkradisG	1	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−3.8	−0.1
Cory Curtis Jr.G	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.2	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 153	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.6%rank 155	18.6%rank 133	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 127	31.7%rank 162	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.2%rank 133	25.2%rank 152	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −9.6
Last season's net rating: −8.3
Last season's minutes returning: 20%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.5
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 100.3 (rank 242)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 109.9 (rank 269)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.5 (rank 170)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Summit League by rating

8 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	St. Thomas	1-0	0-0	−1.9	106.6	108.5	146
2	South Dakota State	1-0	0-0	−3.3	102.7	106.0	163
3	North Dakota State	1-1	0-0	−5.8	104.2	110.0	194
4	Omaha	1-0	0-0	−9.6	100.3	109.9	254
5	South Dakota	1-1	0-0	−12.6	101.6	114.2	288
6	North Dakota	0-1	0-0	−12.7	98.8	111.5	289
7	Kansas City	0-1	0-0	−14.0	95.0	108.9	303
8	Oral Roberts	0-1	0-0	−14.7	97.6	112.2	310