Utah State Aggies

Men's · Pac-12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Omaha · Sat 7 Nov, 4 PM ET

Omaha3%97%Utah State

Projected 89-65 · Game page

Makes the tournament52%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.9

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 25-9

Net rating+15.1Rank 51 of 365 · offence 32, defence 66

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 25-9 (20 to 30 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 26%
Wins the conference tournament: 21%
Average seed if in the field: 8.9
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field52%
Round of 3224%
Sweet 166%
Elite Eight2%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Idaho Staterank 263	Home	95%	79-59	W 94-58	Right
Sat 7 Nov4 PM ET	vs Omaharank 254	Home	97%	89-65	—
Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET	vs Utah Techrank 284	Home	99%	90-64	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 52% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs OmahaA win: 52% · a loss: 51%+1 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs Utah TechA win: 52% · a loss: 51%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Dallin HallG · transfer from Virginia	1	34.0	8.0	3.0	7.0	+3.9	+3.6
Solomon CallaghanG · transfer from Wright St	1	31.0	14.0	5.0	3.0	+0.6	+1.4
Kingston TosiF	1	27.0	26.0	5.0	1.0	+0.2	+1.1
Will HornsethF · transfer from Northern Iowa	1	26.0	16.0	6.0	2.0	+5.1	+3.3
Mason FalslevG	1	21.0	9.0	9.0	3.0	+7.9	+3.7
Karson TemplinF	1	20.0	6.0	6.0	1.0	+6.0	+2.9
Brayden BoeG	1	17.0	2.0	3.0	2.0	+0.3	+0.7
AJ BatesG · transfer from Louisiana Tech	1	14.0	9.0	1.0	5.0	+1.5	+0.9
Sean FeltsC	1	5.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	+0.6	+0.2
Ace ReiserG	1	3.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	+0.7	+0.1
Jordan BoydG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	+0.7	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.5%rank 64	49.1%rank 59	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.1%rank 304	18.5%rank 215	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	34.1%rank 23	31.2%rank 110	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.0%rank 227	25.9%rank 274	25.1%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +15.2 points a game (they shot 12.0%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +12.7
Last season's net rating: +22.4
Last season's minutes returning: 25%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +3.5
Change since preseason: +2.3

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 114.8 (rank 32)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 99.8 (rank 66)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.4 (rank 171)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −10.6 (rank 212)

Pac-12 Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Gonzaga	1-0	0-0	+20.5	115.7	95.1	27
2	Utah State	1-0	0-0	+15.1	114.8	99.8	51
3	Colorado State	1-0	0-0	+10.9	112.4	101.4	69
4	Boise State	1-0	0-0	+10.4	110.9	100.5	74
5	San Diego State	1-0	0-0	+9.0	110.3	101.3	83
6	Oregon State	1-0	0-0	+6.6	108.9	102.3	95
7	Texas State	1-0	0-0	−2.9	103.3	106.2	154
8	Fresno State	1-0	0-0	−3.3	102.3	105.6	161
9	Washington State	0-1	0-0	−4.2	102.5	106.7	174