Boise State Broncos

Men's · Pac-12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Butler · Sun 8 Nov, 2 PM ET

Butler34%66%Boise St

Projected 79-74 · Game page

Makes the tournament24%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.6

Wins the national title<1%Final Four <1% · projected 21-12

Net rating+10.4Rank 75 of 365 · offence 76, defence 81

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 21-12 (15 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 9%
Wins the conference tournament: 10%
Average seed if in the field: 9.6
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field24%
Round of 329%
Sweet 162%
Elite Eight1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Wed 4 Nov	vs West Coast Baptistnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 132-53
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	vs Butlerrank 84	Home	66%	79-74	—
Wed 11 Nov9 PM ET	vs Oaklandrank 159	Home	88%	84-69	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 24% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs ButlerA win: 25% · a loss: 21%+3 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs OaklandA win: 24% · a loss: 23%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Damari Wheeler-ThomasG · transfer from N Dakota St	1	24.0	17.0	5.0	2.0	+2.5	+1.9
Aginaldo NetoG	1	23.0	10.0	3.0	8.0	+1.1	+1.3
Bhan BuomF	1	21.0	16.0	7.0	4.0	+2.3	+1.6
Jerquarius StanbackF · transfer from Alabama St	1	20.0	15.0	16.0	4.0	+1.3	+1.2
Spencer AhrensF	1	19.0	10.0	5.0	2.0	+3.3	+1.8
Julian BowieG	1	18.0	14.0	5.0	1.0	+1.5	+1.1
Dovydas ButkaF · transfer from Campbell	1	17.0	18.0	9.0	2.0	+2.8	+1.4
Pearson CarmichaelF	1	16.0	8.0	3.0	1.0	+3.3	+1.5
Rayzhon BergersenG	1	15.0	11.0	2.0	2.0	+2.1	+1.1
Ethan LathanF	1	11.0	6.0	6.0	0.0	+2.5	+0.9
Jikany DeangF	1	11.0	5.0	3.0	0.0	+0.5	+0.5
Brady HennigG	1	5.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	+0.6	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.1%rank 148	50.1%rank 155	50.1%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 158	18.5%rank 136	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 132	31.7%rank 172	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.6%rank 135	25.6%rank 161	25.6%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +10.5
Last season's net rating: +14.0
Last season's minutes returning: 28%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.4
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 110.8 (rank 76)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 100.3 (rank 81)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.4 (rank 274)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Pac-12 Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Gonzaga	1-0	0-0	+20.5	115.5	95.0	27
2	Utah State	1-0	0-0	+15.2	114.7	99.5	51
3	Colorado State	1-0	0-0	+11.1	112.3	101.2	70
4	Boise State	1-0	0-0	+10.4	110.8	100.3	75
5	San Diego State	1-0	0-0	+9.1	110.2	101.0	82
6	Oregon State	1-0	0-0	+6.8	108.8	102.0	94
7	Texas State	2-0	0-0	−2.8	103.2	106.0	155
8	Fresno State	1-0	0-0	−3.3	102.2	105.4	161
9	Washington State	0-1	0-0	−4.1	102.3	106.5	172