Butler Bulldogs

Men's · Big East Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: at Boise St · Sun 8 Nov, 2 PM ET

Butler32%68%Boise St

Projected 74-80 · Game page

Makes the tournament10%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.6

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 16-18

Net rating+8.8Rank 84 of 365 · offence 74, defence 103

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-18 (11 to 21 wins)
Projected conference record: 6-14
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.6
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field10%
Round of 324%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Lafayetterank 324	Home	95%	79-58	W 96-60	Right
Wed 4 Nov	vs Fairleigh Dickinsonrank 343	Home	98%	88-62	W 99-65	Right
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	at Boise Staterank 74	Away	32%	74-80	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 10% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: at Boise StateA win: 13% · a loss: 8%+5 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jalen JacksonG	2	28.0	17.0	3.5	6.5	+1.8	+1.9
Eduardo KlafkeG · transfer from Ole Miss	2	26.0	14.5	6.0	7.5	+2.9	+2.3
Samis CalderonF · transfer from Kansas	2	24.0	4.0	4.0	3.0	+2.3	+1.9
Asim DjulovicF	2	23.5	22.0	3.5	2.5	−0.1	+0.8
Drayton JonesC	2	21.0	6.0	7.0	0.5	+3.9	+2.3
Treyson AndersonF · transfer from N Dakota St	2	20.5	11.5	6.0	1.0	+3.9	+2.2
Jordan EllerbeeG · transfer from FGCU	2	19.5	12.5	4.5	2.0	+0.5	+0.9
Samu AdlerG	2	19.0	10.0	3.0	4.0	−0.1	+0.7
Baron WalkerG	2	9.0	0.0	1.0	0.5	+0.3	+0.4
Christian MooreF · transfer from The Citadel	2	4.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−1.2	+0.1
Kevin NdzieC	2	3.0	0.0	1.5	0.0	+0.7	+0.1
Herly BrutusF	1	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+0.8	+0.1
Ethan McCombG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.0	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	52.8%rank 18	50.3%rank 135	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	20.2%rank 352	17.3%rank 353	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	35.2%rank 4	30.8%rank 73	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	22.2%rank 353	22.9%rank 24	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 2.0 won, 1.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +8.3 points a game (they shot 20.0%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +6.8
Last season's net rating: +10.5
Last season's minutes returning: 12%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.0
Change since preseason: +1.9

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 111.1 (rank 74)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 102.3 (rank 103)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.3 (rank 77)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −17.3 (rank 264)

Big East Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UConn	1-0	0-0	+24.4	115.6	91.2	12
2	St. John's	1-0	0-0	+21.3	113.0	91.7	22
3	Marquette	1-0	0-0	+20.2	114.8	94.6	29
4	Xavier	1-0	0-0	+18.2	114.1	96.0	33
5	Villanova	0-1	0-0	+17.0	113.9	96.9	36
6	Creighton	1-0	0-0	+15.2	112.5	97.2	50
7	Providence	1-0	0-0	+11.8	111.4	99.7	66
8	Georgetown	1-0	0-0	+10.9	109.9	99.0	71
9	DePaul	1-0	0-0	+10.0	107.6	97.6	77
10	Seton Hall	1-0	0-0	+9.9	106.0	96.1	78
11	Butler	2-0	0-0	+8.8	111.1	102.3	84