Creighton Bluejays

Men's · Big East Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Le Moyne · Thu 5 Nov, 8 PM ET

Le Moyne0%100%Creighton

Projected 93-60 · Game page

Makes the tournament39%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.1

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 18-14

Net rating+15.2Rank 50 of 365 · offence 60, defence 38

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 18-14 (13 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 5%
Wins the conference tournament: 5%
Average seed if in the field: 7.1
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field39%
Round of 3223%
Sweet 168%
Elite Eight3%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Kansas Cityrank 303	Home	100%	86-53	W 76-61	Right
Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET	vs Le Moynerank 352	Home	100%	93-60	—
Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET	at Kansas Staterank 113	Away	67%	79-73	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 39% · the next 7 days

Tue 10 Nov: at Kansas StateA win: 41% · a loss: 33%+8 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Wes EnisG · transfer from South Florida	1	33.0	25.0	3.0	0.0	+3.4	+3.2
Jackson McAndrewF	1	26.0	5.0	7.0	0.0	+1.5	+1.7
Katrelle HarmonG	1	24.0	6.0	2.0	6.0	+0.1	+0.9
Austin SwartzG	1	24.0	7.0	2.0	1.0	+4.0	+2.6
BJ DavisG · transfer from San Diego St	1	22.0	13.0	2.0	3.0	+5.6	+3.0
Hudson GreerG	1	17.0	4.0	5.0	2.0	+2.5	+1.4
Oswin ErhunmwunseF · transfer from Providence	1	15.0	6.0	4.0	1.0	+4.7	+1.8
Trevon Carter-GivensF	1	15.0	6.0	1.0	0.0	+0.3	+0.6
Jasen GreenF	1	12.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	+5.6	+1.6
Isaac TraudtF	1	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.7	+0.4
Fredrick KingC · transfer from Murray St	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+7.0	+0.7
Kayden EdwardsG · transfer from TCU	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+3.2	+0.3

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.2%rank 305	51.9%rank 318	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 144	20.2%rank 15	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.6%rank 300	30.3%rank 47	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.8%rank 96	23.0%rank 35	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +0.3 points a game (they shot 31.8%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +18.6
Last season's net rating: +10.8
Last season's minutes returning: 39%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +6.4
Change since preseason: −3.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 112.5 (rank 60)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 97.2 (rank 38)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.7 (rank 140)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −14.0 (rank 237)

Big East Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UConn	1-0	0-0	+24.4	115.6	91.2	12
2	St. John's	1-0	0-0	+21.3	113.0	91.7	22
3	Marquette	1-0	0-0	+20.2	114.8	94.6	29
4	Xavier	1-0	0-0	+18.2	114.1	96.0	33
5	Villanova	0-1	0-0	+17.0	113.9	96.9	36
6	Creighton	1-0	0-0	+15.2	112.5	97.2	50
7	Providence	1-0	0-0	+11.8	111.4	99.7	66
8	Georgetown	1-0	0-0	+10.9	109.9	99.0	71
9	DePaul	1-0	0-0	+10.0	107.6	97.6	77
10	Seton Hall	1-0	0-0	+9.9	106.0	96.1	78
11	Butler	2-0	0-0	+8.8	111.1	102.3	84