St. John's Red Storm

Men's · Big East Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Iona · Sun 8 Nov, 12 PM ET

Iona0%100%St John's

Projected 87-56 · Game page

Makes the tournament81%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 5.3

Wins the national title1%Final Four 5% · projected 23-9

Net rating+21.3Rank 22 of 365 · offence 53, defence 9

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 23-9 (18 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 14-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 26%
Wins the conference tournament: 20%
Average seed if in the field: 5.3
A 1 seed: 2%

Makes the field81%
Round of 3263%
Sweet 1631%
Elite Eight13%
Final Four5%
Title game2%
Champion1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Monmouthrank 165	Home	98%	81-55	W 78-63	Right
Sun 8 Nov12 PM ET	vs Ionarank 294	Home	100%	87-56	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs Colgaterank 197	Home	99%	89-63	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 81% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs IonaA win: 81% · a loss: 78%+3 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs ColgateA win: 81% · a loss: 79%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Quinn EllisG	1	34.0	8.0	5.0	7.0	+0.2	+1.4
Keyshawn HallF · transfer from Auburn	1	33.0	26.0	9.0	2.0	+6.8	+5.3
Ruben PreyF	1	25.0	2.0	4.0	1.0	+6.0	+3.6
Ian JacksonG	1	22.0	15.0	2.0	0.0	+6.0	+3.2
Tounde YessoufouG · transfer from Baylor	1	22.0	12.0	5.0	2.0	+6.6	+3.5
Lefteris LiotopoulosG	1	19.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	+3.8	+2.0
Reed BaileyF · transfer from Indiana	1	16.0	5.0	5.0	0.0	+5.8	+2.3
Zsombor MaronkaF	1	14.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	+0.6	+0.7
Babacar SaneF	1	10.0	5.0	2.0	0.0	+0.8	+0.5
Kyle Cuffe Jr.G · transfer from Mercer	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	+0.6	+0.1
Casper PohtoG	1	2.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+3.6	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	48.9%rank 323	51.2%rank 282	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.8%rank 255	19.0%rank 73	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.1%rank 266	29.7%rank 22	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.8%rank 94	23.7%rank 63	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −4.6 points a game (they shot 40.0%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +23.0
Last season's net rating: +26.9
Last season's minutes returning: 18%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +8.6
Change since preseason: −1.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 113.0 (rank 53)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 91.7 (rank 9)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.5 (rank 54)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −3.6 (rank 140)

Big East Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UConn	1-0	0-0	+24.4	115.6	91.2	12
2	St. John's	1-0	0-0	+21.3	113.0	91.7	22
3	Marquette	1-0	0-0	+20.2	114.8	94.6	29
4	Xavier	1-0	0-0	+18.2	114.1	96.0	33
5	Villanova	0-1	0-0	+17.0	113.9	96.9	36
6	Creighton	1-0	0-0	+15.2	112.5	97.2	50
7	Providence	1-0	0-0	+11.8	111.4	99.7	66
8	Georgetown	1-0	0-0	+10.9	109.9	99.0	71
9	DePaul	1-0	0-0	+10.0	107.6	97.6	77
10	Seton Hall	1-0	0-0	+9.9	106.0	96.1	78
11	Butler	2-0	0-0	+8.8	111.1	102.3	84